山东省电力市场风险分析研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 11:00

本文选题：电力市场 + 风险　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力生产和电力经营分离的逐步完善，发电侧电力市场机制和网厂分开机制已经初步形成和完善，增加了电力市场和电力系统的风险，，此外，电力市场具有的特殊性也在一定程度上增加了电力市场的风险因素。本文首先从缺电风险、电力投资风险、电力定价风险、发电侧市场力风险、电网安全运行风险、负荷预测风险和用户欠费风险共7个层面对电力市场的风险可能性进行了研究，并进行了风险评价体系的研究。其次，从电力弹性系数、平均利用小时数、市场可进度和电价水平四个层面确定了电力市场的主要风险指标。基于对市场开放机率和送受端市场类型辅助指标的分析，进行了山东省电力市场风险评价群策方法的研究，再在综合评价方法的研究的基础上，探索了基于直觉模糊集的山东省电力市场风险评价群决策方法。并根据所研究的综合评价结果，针对山东省电力市场存在的风险进行了防范对策的研究。
[Abstract]:With the gradual improvement of the separation of power production and power operation, the mechanism of electricity market and power grid separation on the power generation side has been initially formed and perfected, which has increased the risks of the electricity market and the power system. The particularity of electricity market also increases the risk factors of electricity market to some extent. In this paper, the possibility of power market risk is studied from seven aspects: power shortage risk, power investment risk, power pricing risk, generation side market power risk, grid safety risk, load forecasting risk and user default risk. The risk evaluation system is also studied. Secondly, the main risk indexes of the electricity market are determined from four aspects: the elasticity coefficient of electricity, the average number of hours used, the progress of the market and the level of electricity price. Based on the analysis of the market opening probability and the auxiliary index of the market type of the receiving end, this paper studies the methods of the group policy of the power market risk assessment in Shandong Province, and then on the basis of the research of the comprehensive evaluation method, A group decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for power market risk assessment in Shandong Province is explored. According to the comprehensive evaluation results, the paper studies the countermeasures against the risks in Shandong electric power market.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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