基于DEA模型的我国光伏行业上市公司的效率研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 17:04

本文选题：光伏产业 + 企业效率　；参考：《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：面对日益严峻的能源和环境问题，发展可再生能源包括光伏发电已是势在必行。目前，我国光伏产业处于发展的早期阶段，这预示着巨大的潜力，有研究结论认为其稳定的高增长率将保持到2030年乃至更远。光伏发电前景广阔，给光伏产业的发展创造了巨大空间。经过多年的发展，，我国光伏产业已经具有一定的规模。2011年底，我国多晶硅产量达8.4万吨，光伏电池组件产量达到21GW。光伏产业的总产值超过了3000亿元，就业人数接近50万人，全球前十大多晶硅企业中我国占据4席，前十大硅片、电池片和组件企业中，我国各占据6席。然而，我国光伏产业的快速发展是否也使我国光伏企业的效率得到显著地提升呢？本文采用DEA模型来研究我国光伏业上市公司的效率问题。DEA模型是1978被A. Charnes、W. W. Cooper和E. Rhodes以相对效率为基础提出的。DEA模型的基本思路是把每一个被评价单位作为一个决策单元(DMU)，再由众多的DMU构成被评价群体，通过对投入和产出比率的综合分析，以DMU的各个投入和产出指标的权重为变量进行运算，从而确定有效生产前沿面，并根据各DMU与有效生产前沿面的距离，确定各DMU是否为DEA有效。同时，借助于投影方法可以分析造成企业效率非DEA有效或弱DEA有效的原因，并指出改进的方向和程度。本文分为六章。第一章是绪论，主要介绍了研究的背景、目的和意义及研究的方法等。第二章是相关概念和文献综述，着重介绍了光伏产业、企业效率等概念以及相关问题的研究状况。第三章是我国光伏产业的发展历史与现状分析，概述了我国光伏产业的发展历程、产业主要集聚区和区内重点企业，分析了我国光伏市场供需现状和光伏技术现状。第四章是基于DEA模型的效率评价体系的构建。第五章里用DEA模型对我国光伏业上市公司进行实证研究，选取国内23家上市光伏企业，用有关的数据进行计算，对企业的效率作出评价，并依据分析结果给出提高企业效率的路径。第六章是结论与后续研究的建议。研究得到的结论是：从2009年到2011年，我国光伏上市公司的综合技术效率逐年提升，综合技术效率值在0.9以上，处于较高的水平；虽然非DEA有效的公司的数量变化不大，但是在样本总数中占大部分（约为65%），需要对其投入和产出进行调整；规模报酬不变的企业的数量几乎无变化，而规模报酬递增企业和规模报酬递减企业的数量变化较大。总之，通过对我国光伏业上市公司的效率的研究，可以比较深入地认识我国光伏产业的现状，可以为上市光伏公司提高效率提供思路，也可以为诸多亟待上市的光伏公司提升业绩有所借鉴。
[Abstract]:In the face of increasingly severe energy and environmental problems, it is imperative to develop renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic power generation. At present, the photovoltaic industry in China is in the early stage of development, which indicates great potential. The prospect of photovoltaic power generation is broad, which creates a huge space for the development of photovoltaic industry. After years of development, the photovoltaic industry in China has a certain scale. At the end of 2011, the output of polysilicon in China reached 84000 tons, and the output of photovoltaic cell modules reached 21GW. The total output value of photovoltaic industry exceeds 300 billion yuan, and the number of employed people is close to 500000. Among the top ten polysilicon enterprises in the world, China occupies 4 seats, and among the top 10 silicon wafers, battery chips and components enterprises, China occupies 6 seats each. However, does the rapid development of photovoltaic industry in China also make the efficiency of photovoltaic enterprises in China to be significantly improved? In this paper, we use DEA model to study the efficiency of listed companies in photovoltaic industry in China. The DEA model is 1978, which is put forward by A. Charnesn W. Cooper and E. Rhodes on the basis of relative efficiency. The basic idea of this model is to treat each evaluated unit as a. The Decision-Making Unit (DMU) is composed of a large number of DMU. Through the comprehensive analysis of the ratio of input and output, the weights of each input and output index of DMU are used as variables to calculate the effective production frontier, and according to the distance between each DMU and the effective production frontier, Determine whether each DMU is valid for DEA. At the same time, by means of projection method, we can analyze the causes of non-DEA effectiveness or weak DEA efficiency of enterprise efficiency, and point out the direction and degree of improvement. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background, the purpose and the significance as well as the research method and so on. The second chapter is the related concepts and literature review, focusing on the PV industry, enterprise efficiency and other concepts as well as the research status of related issues. The third chapter is the development history and the present situation analysis of the photovoltaic industry in our country, summarized the development course of the photovoltaic industry of our country, the main industry agglomeration area and the key enterprise in the area, analyzed our country photovoltaic market supply and demand present situation and the photovoltaic technology present situation. The fourth chapter is the construction of efficiency evaluation system based on DEA model. The fifth chapter uses the DEA model to carry on the empirical research to our country photovoltaic industry listed company, selects the domestic 23 listed photovoltaic enterprises, carries on the calculation with the related data, makes the appraisal to the enterprise's efficiency. According to the analysis results, the way to improve the efficiency of enterprises is given. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion of follow-up study. The conclusion is: from 2009 to 2011, the comprehensive technical efficiency of listed photovoltaic companies in China has been improved year by year, and the efficiency of integrated technology is above 0.9, which is at a higher level, although the number of non-effective DEA companies does not change much. However, it accounts for most of the total sample (about 65%), which needs to adjust its input and output; the number of enterprises with constant returns of scale has almost no change, while the number of enterprises with increasing returns of scale and decreasing returns of scale has a great change. In a word, by studying the efficiency of listed companies in photovoltaic industry in China, we can have a deeper understanding of the current situation of the photovoltaic industry in our country, and can provide ideas for the listed photovoltaic companies to improve their efficiency. It can also be used for reference for many photovoltaic companies that need to be listed urgently to improve their performance.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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