基于实物期权的非常规油气资源开发经济评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 00:04

本文选题：非常规油气资源 + 经济评价　；参考：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在世界能源结构中，常规能源的地位不容置疑，同时又因其稀缺性和不可再生性，在未来面临能源紧张的时代，全球能源资源正在迅速进行重新分配，非常规油气资源的勘探开发已成为世界能源发展的必然战略选择。在我国，对油气资源开发进行经济评价和决策分析时，大多采用传统的经济评价方法，但是由于非常规油气资源独特的形成、富集与分布规律，其所处的地质条件、自然条件以及技术经济条件与常规油气资源的不同，其经济价值也不同，对油气资源评价不能从经济角度进行优选，将无疑会给具有科学根据的地质普查、勘探工作计划的编制和含油气区开发可行性论证造成困难。因此，如果在非常规油气开发项目的经济评价和可行性分析过程中，使用传统的经济评价方法，从而会导致计算结果不能反映项目的真实价值。本文首先对非常规油气资源进行概述，针对非常规油气资源在我国存在点多、面广、开采难度大、勘探开发风险和不确定性较高的特点，对常规经济评价方法和实物期权进行对比，在充分认识到传统方法的缺陷后，从而构建基于实物期权的非常规油气资源开发经济评价方法，提出针对非常规油气开发具有的实物期权特性，，非常规油气资源开发的投资价值包括两部分：其一是不考虑实物期权的存在，可以用净现值法求得投资项目固有的内在价值；其二是由项目的期权特性产生的期权价值。同时，对非常规油气资源中具有代表性的煤层气开发项目进行期权价值分析。最后，通过西部某矿区煤层气开发利用示范项目进行分析，考虑煤层气开发项目的期权价值，验证了以实物期权为基础的非常规油气资源经济评价方法的适用性。
[Abstract]:In the world energy structure, the status of conventional energy is indisputable. At the same time, because of its scarcity and non-renewable, the global energy resources are being redistributed rapidly in the future energy era. The exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources has become an inevitable strategic choice for the development of energy in the world. In China, traditional economic evaluation methods are used in economic evaluation and decision analysis of oil and gas resources development, but due to the unique formation, enrichment and distribution of unconventional oil and gas resources, they are located in geological conditions. Natural conditions and technical and economic conditions are different from conventional oil and gas resources, and their economic values are also different. The evaluation of oil and gas resources cannot be selected from an economic point of view, which will undoubtedly give a scientific geological survey. It is difficult to draw up the plan of exploration work and prove the feasibility of exploitation in oil and gas bearing area. Therefore, if the traditional economic evaluation method is used in the process of economic evaluation and feasibility analysis of unconventional oil and gas development projects, the calculation results will not reflect the true value of the project. This paper first summarizes the unconventional oil and gas resources, aiming at the characteristics of the unconventional oil and gas resources in our country, such as many points, wide scope, high difficulty of exploitation, high risk of exploration and development and high uncertainty. By comparing the conventional economic evaluation method with the real option method and fully recognizing the defects of the traditional method, the economic evaluation method of unconventional oil and gas resources development based on real option is constructed. According to the real option characteristics of unconventional oil and gas development, the investment value of unconventional oil and gas resources development includes two parts: one is that the intrinsic value of investment project can be obtained by net present value method without considering the existence of real option; The second is the option value generated by the option characteristics of the project. At the same time, the option value of coal bed methane (CBM) which is representative of unconventional oil and gas resources is analyzed. Finally, through the analysis of the demonstration project of coalbed methane development and utilization in a mining area in the west of China, considering the option value of the coal-bed methane development project, the applicability of the unconventional economic evaluation method of oil and gas resources based on real options is verified.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22

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