石油安全视角下中国原油进口地空间格局研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 23:16

本文选题：石油安全 + 原油进口地　；参考：《南京师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,中国原油安全面临的形势日益严峻：一方面,中国经济高速发展和社会转型,刺激了原油消费快速增长；另一方面,中国国内原油生产严重不足,导致原油进口规模急剧扩大；另外,中国原油进口空间格局虽形成,但安全形势仍不容乐观。文章基于石油安全的视角,首先分析中国原油产消、进口和安全的状况,对中国原油安全做出评价,在此基础上,一方面,从时序演变,分析1993-2009年中国原油进口地空间格局的演变特点与原因,另一方面,从未来发展,探讨中国原油进口的重点区域选择,对于优化我国原油进口来源和制定原油进口安全战略具有一定的意义。具体来讲：首先,详细分析了1980-2010年我国原油产消关系,结果显示,我国原油供需矛盾日益尖锐；其次,进一步对原油依存度变化进行研究；最后,借鉴其他专家和学者的方法,建立中国原油安全评价指标体系,对中国原油安全状况做出评价。文章对1993-2010年中国原油进口国家(和地区)的空间分布及其变化作了详细分析,并利用ArcGIS制图,直观表现了不同时期中国原油进口来源地的空间分布。在此基础上,借鉴复杂网络理论,运用权重熵对我国原油进口空间格局的内部结构进行了量化分析,得出了中国原油进口空间结构的有序性变化。文章首先从原油储量、生产和出口三方面,分析了中东、非洲、欧洲及前苏联、南美洲、亚太和北美洲六大原油资源富集区,紧接着研究了这些原油富集区域与中国的运输距离及地缘政治关系,在此基础上,采用半定量方法,提出中国原油进口的重点区域选择。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the situation facing China's crude oil safety has become increasingly serious: on the one hand, China's rapid economic development and social transformation have stimulated the rapid growth of crude oil consumption; on the other hand, China's domestic crude oil production has been seriously inadequate. In addition, although the spatial pattern of China's crude oil import is formed, the security situation is still not optimistic. Based on the perspective of oil security, this paper first analyzes the situation of crude oil production, consumption, import and security in China, and then makes an evaluation of China's crude oil safety. On the one hand, it evolves from time series. This paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and causes of the spatial pattern of China's crude oil import from 1993 to 2009. On the other hand, from the perspective of future development, the paper discusses the choice of key regions for China's crude oil import. It has certain significance for optimizing the source of crude oil import and formulating the crude oil import safety strategy. Specifically: Firstly, the relationship between crude oil production and consumption in China from 1980 to 2010 is analyzed in detail. The results show that the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil in China is becoming more and more acute; secondly, the dependence of crude oil is further studied; finally, the methods of other experts and scholars are used for reference. The evaluation index system of crude oil safety in China is established to evaluate the safety status of crude oil in China. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution and changes of China's crude oil importing countries (and regions) from 1993 to 2010, and uses ArcGIS mapping to visualize the spatial distribution of China's crude oil import sources in different periods. On this basis, using the complex network theory for reference, the internal structure of China's crude oil import spatial pattern is analyzed quantitatively by using the weight entropy, and the orderly change of the spatial structure of China's crude oil import is obtained. In this paper, the oil reserves, production and export are analyzed in the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the former Soviet Union, South America, Asia Pacific and North America. On the basis of the study of the transportation distance and geopolitical relationship between these regions and China, a semi-quantitative method is proposed to select the key regions for China's crude oil import.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.61;F426.22

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