基于空间视角的中国能源效率演变研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 04:16

本文选题：能源效率 + 数据包络　；参考：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：工业化和城市化带来越来越多的能源短缺、环境污染等问题，2013年我国部分城市出现了严重的雾霾污染天气，其面积之广，程度之恶劣，引起了全国人们对经济发展模式和环境保护的高度关注。未来气候领域的核心依然是节能减排，资源禀赋和国际能源竞争格局决定了我国以煤电为主的能源结构短时间内是难以改变和突破的。如何提高能源利用效率，在现有技术条件下，显得更为迫切与重要。本文重在考察空间视角下的能源效率时空演变特征，并探讨影响能源效率变动的因素。研究思路如下：首先选取数据包络方法测算全国29个省市、自治区的能源效率，并分析其在空间上的分布差异、重心轨迹和空间相关性。接着挖掘各省能源利用效率在空间上的溢出性，使用空间杜宾面板模型分析1990-2010年各省的面板数据，运用邻接矩阵和地理距离矩阵从空间溢出角度探讨能源效率的影响因素，同时分析这种溢出作用与距离、时间的关系。通过分析，论文的结论如下：（1）历年来我国能源效率重心呈现出由“低经度”向“高经度”方向演变的趋势，东、西差异比南、北差异更明显，空间上呈现出由东部沿海向中西部递减的格局。（2）我国区域能源效率不是随机分布的，而是存在正向的空间集聚性，并且这种空间集聚性随时间推移在逐步增强。（3）构建邻接矩阵和地理距离矩阵的空间面板模型，结果表明所选取的五个影响因素都存在着显著的空间溢出影响。除了发达程度因素外，外商投资、开放程度、产业结构和政府影响四个因素的空间溢出影响都要大于直接影响。说明了空间溢出影响是造成能源利用差异的核心因素。（4）能源效率空间溢出作用随着距离增大而呈现双平台下降的变化趋势，空间溢出效应的最优距离在280公里以内，而在500公里以外溢出作用大幅减弱至零。（5）发达程度，外商投资、开放程度和产业结构的当期溢出作用强度最大，并逐渐减弱。政府影响因素存在时滞性，影响系数最大值出现在滞后第三年。表明政策需要时间来吸收和消化，，从推行到产生作用需要三年左右的时间。
[Abstract]:Industrialization and urbanization bring more energy shortages, environmental pollution and other problems. In 2013, some cities in China had serious haze pollution weather, its area is wide and its degree is bad. Has aroused the national people to the economic development pattern and the environmental protection high attention. Energy conservation and emission reduction are still the core of climate field in the future. Resource endowment and international energy competition pattern determine that the energy structure dominated by coal and electricity is difficult to change and break through in a short period of time. How to improve the efficiency of energy use is more urgent and important under the existing technical conditions. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal evolution of energy efficiency from the perspective of space, and discusses the factors that affect the change of energy efficiency. The research ideas are as follows: firstly, the energy efficiency of 29 provinces and autonomous regions is calculated by using data envelopment method, and the spatial distribution difference, center of gravity trajectory and spatial correlation are analyzed. Secondly, the spatial spillover of energy efficiency in various provinces is excavated. The spatial Doberbin panel model is used to analyze the panel data of provinces from 1990 to 2010, and the influence factors of energy efficiency are discussed from the perspective of spatial spillover using adjacency matrix and geographical distance matrix. At the same time, the relationship between the spillover effect and distance and time is analyzed. Through analysis, the conclusion of the paper is as follows: 1) the energy efficiency center of gravity in China has evolved from "low longitude" to "high longitude" over the years. The differences between east and west are more obvious than those in south and north, and the spatial pattern is decreasing from eastern coast to central and western regions. 2) Regional energy efficiency in China is not randomly distributed, but positive spatial agglomeration exists, and this spatial agglomeration increases gradually with time. 3) the spatial panel models of adjacent matrix and geographical distance matrix are constructed. The results show that the five factors selected have significant spatial spillover effects. In addition to the factors of degree of development, the spatial spillover effects of foreign investment, openness, industrial structure and government influence are all greater than that of direct influence. The spatial spillover effect is the core factor of energy utilization difference. 4) the spatial spillover effect of energy efficiency decreases with the increase of distance. The optimal distance of spatial spillover effect is less than 280 km, but the spillover effect decreases to zero at 500 km. 5) the degree of development, the degree of foreign investment, the degree of opening and the industrial structure of the current spillover effect intensity is the largest, and gradually weakened. The influence factors of government have time delay, and the maximum of influence coefficient appears in the third year of lag. It shows that policy takes time to absorb and digest, and it takes about three years from implementation to effect.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.2;F206

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