浙江省风电发展战略研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 17:06

本文选题：风能发电 + 战略研究　；参考：《浙江工业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：过去十年间,伴随着经济的飞速发展,浙江省的能源供应和电力供应都出现了不同程度的短缺。基于化石能源的种种劣势,可再生能源将在未来的电力结构中占据重要位置。因此,本文将针对技术发展较为成熟,省内资源储量丰富,且发电成本接近火电成本的风电展开研究,以期为“十二五”期间浙江省风电发展战略的制定提供建议。在阅读大量国内外风电领域文献的基础上,本文运用灰色系统模型对浙江省未来电力需求进行了预测。并通过Logistic生长曲线和学习曲线等定量模型,在预测风电装机容量、风电成本及火电成本走势的前提下,得出了两类电力成本持平的时间节点。随后,本文采用PEST模型和波特五力模型,对省内风电发展外部环境的宏观和微观两个层面进行了客观分析。并在此基础上,以SWOT分析模型和AHP层次分析法的有机结合,定量分析了风电发展的优势、劣势、机会和威胁四类战略要素及其权重。文章的最后提出了浙江省风电发展目标、发展模式,并对浙江省风电发展战略提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past decade, with the rapid development of economy, the energy supply and power supply in Zhejiang Province have been in varying degrees. Because of the disadvantages of fossil energy, renewable energy will play an important role in the future power structure. Therefore, this paper will focus on wind power with mature technology development, abundant resources in the province and close to thermal power cost. On the basis of reading a lot of literatures in the field of wind power at home and abroad, this paper uses the grey system model to predict the future power demand of Zhejiang Province. Based on the quantitative models such as Logistic growth curve and learning curve, on the premise of predicting the trend of wind power installed capacity, wind power cost and thermal power cost, two kinds of time nodes of equal power cost are obtained. In this paper, pest model and Porter's five-force model are used to analyze the macro and micro aspects of the external environment of wind power development in the province. On this basis, with the combination of SWOT analysis model and AHP analytic hierarchy process, the paper quantitatively analyzes the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of wind power development and its weight. Finally, the paper puts forward the development goal and mode of wind power in Zhejiang Province, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development strategy of wind power in Zhejiang Province.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

【相似文献】