典型发达和发展中国家电力负荷预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-07 04:45

本文选题：负荷预测 + 电力消费　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：往经济迅速发展的时代,电力能源在全球的经济社会发展中起着举足轻重的作用。经济发展是电力需求增长的主要原因。因此,电力是我国经济发展中的重中之重。但是电力建设与经济发展的不同步性,阻碍了经济的发展。为了保持经济持续平稳快速的发展,电力负荷饱和点的预测成为政府,社会各方而关心的焦点。准确预测电力负荷不仅有助于做出准确的电力系统规划,而且可以掌握电力市场的发展方向。本文利用计量经济学中的平稳性检验、格兰杰因果检验和线性回归的方法,以美国、英国、日本、印度、巴西、中国的电力负荷为分析对象,从GDP、人口、第三产业产值占GDP的比例与电力负荷之间的关系进行了研究。本文首先对美国、英国、日本、印度、巴西、中国的GDP、人口、第三产业产值占GDP的比例和电力负荷的平稳性进行了探讨,结果表明这些值都是平稳的。其次对美国、英国、日本、印度、巴西、中国的GDP、人口、第三产业产值占GDP的比例和电力负荷的之间的因果关系进行检验,发现各个国家的因果关系迥异。然后根据各个国家的经济发展水平,利用偏最小二乘法对发达国家(例如美国、英国、日本)的GDP、第三产业产值占GDP的比例和电力负荷的之间进行回归分析,同时利用偏最小二乘法对发展中国家(例如中国、印度、巴西)的GDP、人口和电力负荷之间进行回归分析,并建立相应的方程,总结出发达国家负荷预测模型和发展国家负荷预测模型。最后对中国的电力负荷进行预测。通过定量分析人口、GDP、产业结构和电力负荷进行分析,我们不仅可以预测电力负荷,而且可以预测电力行业对国民经济及产业结构的影响。
[Abstract]:In the era of rapid economic development, power and energy play an important role in the economic and social development of the world. Economic development is the main reason for the growth of electricity demand. Therefore, electricity is the most important factor in the economic development of our country. However, the unsynchronization of electric power construction and economic development has hindered the economic development. The prediction of the power load saturation point has become the focus of the government and the social parties. The accurate prediction of the power load not only helps to make the accurate power system planning, but also can grasp the direction of the development of the electricity market.
In this paper, based on the stability test of econometrics, Grainger causality test and linear regression method, the power load of the United States, Britain, Japan, India, Brazil and China is analyzed. The relationship between the proportion of GDP, the population, the third industry value of GDP and the power load is studied. The first of this paper is the United States, Britain, Japan, India, Brazil, China's GDP, population, and third industrial output value account for the proportion of GDP and the stability of power load. The results show that these values are stable. Secondly, the causality between the proportion of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, Brazil, China's GDP, the population, the output value of the third industry and the power load is tested. According to the economic development level of each country, the GDP of the developed countries (such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan), the proportion of the output value of the third industry and the power load of the developed countries (such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan) are analyzed by the partial least square method, and the partial least square method is used for the developing countries (for example, China, for example). GDP, Brazil), the regression analysis between population and power load, and the establishment of the corresponding equations, the developed country load forecasting model and the development of national load forecasting model. Finally, the power load of China is predicted. By quantitative analysis of population, GDP, industrial structure and power load, we can not only predict the power load, but we can not only predict the load of the population, the industrial structure and the power load. Power load, and can predict the impact of the power industry on the national economy and industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.61;F224

【参考文献】