城市配电工程项目运营风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 04:04

本文选题：配电工程建设 + 风险管理　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着城市配电规模的不断扩大以及用户对供电质量的不断提高、用电的增多，所有的施工活动都必须有施工过程及运行维护的风险保障措施。凡重大施工项目和重要施工项目、危险及特殊作业项目、恶劣气候及恶劣条件下的施工作业项目，以及涉及人身安全和电网安全运行的其他施工项目，必须编制含有安全施工技术措施的施工方案，并对施工方案的安全风险进行评估，施工方案风险评估是评价当施工方案失败或不能按预期目标实施的可能性和其后果的严重性，所以对配电工程建设项目运行进行实时预警是非常必要的，分析配电工程建设中存在的安全隐患，在事故发生前对城市配电工程项目进行安全评估并优化其运营方式。实施风险预警分析和控制消除隐患，能够保证城市配电的安全可靠运行。对于主网的安全评估理论的研究已经比较成熟，但是有关配电网的工程建设管理相关方面研究还不够深入，这对于研究城市配电工程建设管理的复杂性和运营风险分析显得尤为重要。本文基于风险理论，，通过建立自然风险指数平滑预测模型、行为风险灰色/回归一层次预警模型，采用单因素风险预警法对保定配电工程项目运营的自然风险、经济风险和行为风险进行了评价，并提出了减小项目运营风险的措施。
[Abstract]:With the continuous expansion of the scale of urban distribution and the continuous improvement of the quality of power supply by users and the increase of electricity consumption, all construction activities must have the risk protection measures of construction process and operation and maintenance. All major construction projects and important construction projects, dangerous and special operations projects, construction projects under adverse weather and conditions, and other construction projects involving personal safety and the safe operation of the power grid, It is necessary to prepare a construction plan containing technical measures for safe construction and to assess the safety risks of the construction programme, which is to assess the seriousness of the possibility and consequences of the failure or failure of the construction programme to be carried out in accordance with its intended objectives, So it is very necessary to carry on the real-time early warning to the distribution engineering construction project operation, analyze the safety hidden danger existing in the distribution engineering construction, carry on the safety appraisal to the city distribution engineering project before the accident and optimize its operation mode. The implementation of risk early warning analysis and control to eliminate hidden dangers can ensure the safe and reliable operation of urban distribution. The research on the safety assessment theory of the main network has been mature, but the research on the engineering construction management related to the distribution network is not deep enough. This is particularly important for studying the complexity of urban distribution project construction management and operational risk analysis. Based on the risk theory, this paper establishes the natural risk index smoothing prediction model, the behavior risk grey / regression one level early warning model, and adopts the single factor risk early warning method to the Baoding distribution project operation natural risk. The economic risk and behavioral risk are evaluated, and the measures to reduce the operational risk of the project are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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