山西省煤炭工业发展影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 01:11

本文选题：煤炭工业 + 煤炭资源整合　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：山西是我国的煤炭大省,自改革开放以来,我国每年的原煤产量约有25%来自于山西省。煤炭工业也是山西省经济的重要组成部分,近年来其增加值占山西省工业总增加值约60%,2012年上半年缴税额占全省税收总额的56.99%,可见,山西省煤炭工业的发展情况对我国整体煤炭工业以及山西经济都有着十分重大的影响,故对其影响因素的分析十分重要。 2008年山西省进行了我国最大规模的煤炭资源整合。长期以来,山西省煤炭工业存在着许多混乱的私营煤矿,无序且过度的开采一方面造成了山西省煤炭资源的大量浪费,另一方面安全事故频频发生。煤改至今已有五年,效果也初步显现。作为山西省煤炭工业发展的重大影响事件,煤改是否对该工业的发展结构产生显著影响,这一探讨也有较为重要的意义。山西省煤炭工业的发展十分重要,那么其关键的影响因素有哪些?各因素对该工业发展影响的程度有多大?煤改是否对山西省煤炭工业发展的整体结构有明显的改变?这是对于探究该工业发展以及相关政策制定十分重要的问题,也是本文试图解决的问题。在已有的对于煤炭产量及其相关因素的文献中,关于我国整体及世界煤炭产量的预测和影响因素的研究所使用的分析方法较为全面；但针对山西省煤炭工业以及山西省煤炭资源整合的研究大多数集中于定性分析,少数运用了统计学的方法体系,在计量经济学建模的定量分析方面,山西省煤炭工业的相关研究还相对欠缺。本文的目的是研究山西省煤炭工业发展的影响因素,旨在从计量经济学的角度确定对山西省煤炭工业的主要影响因素,并分析煤改是否对该工业发展的结构产生了影响。具体来说,本文主要分为以下六章：第一,介绍研究的背景、目的以及思路。第二,对已有的相关研究进行总结与评价。第三,介绍与产量影响因素相关的经济理论,主要包括生产理论和供求理论,为后文的分析奠定经济理论基础。第四,高度重视山西省煤炭工业发展的研究,对其情况作出介绍。主要包括该工业对我国整体煤炭工业以及山西省经济的重要性,并对原煤产量以及煤炭工业内主要指标的发展做出回顾与分析。第五,进行实证分析并得出结论。本文选择山西省原煤产量作为被解释变量,选取2001至2012年的季度数据进行了实证分析。分析结果认为,山西省煤炭工业发展的主要影响因素为资本投入、从业人员数、外运量以及矿井数,且始于2008年的煤改对山西省煤炭工业发展结构的变化产生了影响。另外,本文也得出了一些具有参考意义的结论：首先,山西省原煤产量对外运的依赖性很强,这在一定程度上反映了煤炭工业潜在的风险；其次,价格对于山西省原煤产量的影响并不显著,一方面是由于山西省原煤产量受外运影响很大,另一方面是由于我国能源消费中的煤炭消费量巨大,全国煤炭需求较旺盛,而山西又是我国的产煤大省,故对其而言产量对价格的变化相对不敏感。第六,提出政策建议。在前面对山西省煤炭工业分析的基础上,针对分析结果提出相应的政策建议,主要包括持续加大资本投入、大力发展延伸省内煤炭产业链以及继续深化煤炭资源整合等。总体来说,针对已有相关研究主要集中在定性方面,定量研究较少,本文的主要特点是以事实数据为依据,选择计量经济学建模的方法来进行分析,一方面确定山西省原煤产量的关键影响因素,并定量的探究各指标对煤炭产量的影响；另一方面检验煤改对山西省煤炭工业发展结构影响的效果是否显著,在此基础上对比煤改前后该工业发展的不同。本文还有一些不足之处,由于数据获取的局限性,部分变量在进行预处理时可能会引起其方差比实际情况偏小,从而导致t检验的显著性增强；且对煤改之后效果进行回归时的样本量相对较小,故煤改后的回归结果只是作为一个参考。
[Abstract]:Shanxi is a big coal province in China. Since the reform and opening up, about 25% of the output of raw coal in China is from Shanxi province. The coal industry is also an important part of the economy of Shanxi province. In recent years, its added value accounts for about 60% of the total industrial added value of Shanxi province. In the first half of 2012, the amount of tax accounted for 56.99% of the total tax revenue of the province. It is visible, Shanxi province coal. The development of industry has a great impact on China's overall coal industry and Shanxi's economy. Therefore, the analysis of its influencing factors is very important.
In 2008, Shanxi province carried out the largest integration of coal resources in China. For a long time, there were many chaotic private coal mines in the coal industry of Shanxi province. On the one hand, the disordered and excessive mining caused a lot of waste of coal resources in Shanxi province. On the other hand, the safety accidents occurred frequently. It has been five years since the coal reform has been changed, and the effect has also appeared preliminarily. As a major impact event in the development of the coal industry in Shanxi, coal reform has a significant impact on the industrial development structure, which is also of great significance.
The development of the coal industry in Shanxi is very important, so what are the key factors that affect the development of the industrial development? Is there a significant change in the overall structure of the coal industry in Shanxi province? This is a very important problem for the development of the industry and the relevant policy formulation. The article is an attempt to solve the problem.
In the literature on the coal production and its related factors, the analysis method used in the research on the prediction and influencing factors of the overall and world coal production in China is more comprehensive. However, most of the studies on the coal industry in Shanxi and the integration of coal resources in Shanxi are concentrated on the qualitative analysis, and a few use statistics. In terms of quantitative analysis of econometric modeling, relative research on coal industry in Shanxi is relatively lacking.
The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of the development of coal industry in Shanxi province. The aim of this paper is to determine the main influencing factors of coal industry in Shanxi province from the perspective of econometrics, and to analyze the influence of coal reform on the structure of the industrial development. In particular, this paper is divided into the following six chapters.
First, the background, purpose and thought of the study are introduced.
Second, summarize and evaluate the existing research.
Third, it introduces economic theories related to yield factors, including production theory and supply and demand theory, which lays the foundation for economic analysis.
Fourth, attach great importance to the research on the development of coal industry in Shanxi Province, introduce its situation, mainly including the importance of the industry to the whole coal industry and the economy of Shanxi Province, and review and analyze the production of raw coal and the development of the main indexes in the coal industry.
Fifth, we make an empirical analysis and draw a conclusion. This paper selects the output of raw coal in Shanxi as an explanatory variable and selects the quarterly data from 2001 to 2012 to carry out an empirical analysis. The results show that the main factors affecting the development of coal industry in Shanxi are capital input, number of employees, foreign transportation and the number of mines, and it began in 2008. The change has had an impact on the change of the development structure of Shanxi's coal industry.
In addition, this paper also draws some reference conclusions: first, Shanxi province raw coal production has a strong dependence on foreign transport, which reflects the potential risk of coal industry to a certain extent. Secondly, the impact of price on the output of raw coal in Shanxi is not significant, one side is that the output of raw coal in Shanxi is greatly affected by the foreign transport. On the other hand, because of the huge consumption of coal in our energy consumption, the coal demand in China is very strong, and Shanxi is a big coal producing province in China, so the output of the coal is relatively insensitive to the change of the price.
Sixth, put forward the policy suggestions. On the basis of the analysis of the coal industry in Shanxi Province, we put forward the corresponding policy suggestions on the basis of the analysis results, including the continuous increase of capital investment, the development of the coal industry chain in the extended province and the continuous deepening of the integration of coal resources.
In general, the main characteristics of the related research are qualitative and quantitative research. The main feature of this paper is to choose the method of econometric modeling based on the fact data. On the one hand, the key factors of the output of raw coal in Shanxi province are determined, and the influence of each index on the coal output is explored. On the other hand, the effect of coal alteration on the development structure of Shanxi coal industry is significant. On this basis, the difference of industrial development before and after coal transformation is compared.
There are some shortcomings in this paper. Due to the limitation of data acquisition, some variables may cause the variance of the variance to be smaller than the actual situation, which leads to the significant enhancement of the t test. The regression results of coal after the coal modification are relatively small, so the regression results after coal modification are only a reference.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.21;F224

【参考文献】