油价波动背景下中石化盈利能力提升问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 09:33

本文选题：中石化 + 油价波动　；参考：《中国石油大学（华东）》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油作为重要的战略资源，对世界各国的经济发展起到了举足轻重的作用。同时，由于世界经济的快速发展与石油资源的不可再生性之间的矛盾日渐突出，再加上金融、政治等领域的影响，导致21世纪以来国际原油价格的剧烈波动。国际油价的波动通过价格的传导机制给石油企业的盈利能力造成了一定程度的影响。我国在国际原油定价市场上缺少发言权，而在国内三大石油公司中，中石化作为中国最大的石油炼制商和石油产品生产商，，而炼化与原油销售板块与油价的涨跌关系最为密切，因此中石化受国际油价波动的影响最大。中石化目前面临的主要油价风险为：原油的采购价格与国际市场接轨；另一方面，国内成品油的定价机制是由国家发改委统一制定基准价，国内油价相对滞后于国际油价。因此，国际油价的波动会在很大程度上影响中石化的利润水平，从而影响其盈利能力。因此，分析油价波动对中石化盈利能力的影响，进而提出应对油价波动的对策，对于中石化的可持续发展以及国家的经济发展与能源安全有重大意义。文章首先在油价与盈利能力相关理论的研究基础上，分析了油价波动与企业盈利能力的关系，借鉴已有的盈利能力指标体系，构建符合中石化企业现状与本文分析内容的盈利能力指标体系。接下来利用因子分析和回归分析的方法对油价波动背景下中石化的盈利能力进行实证分析，同样的对中石油、BP公司以及壳牌公司进行实证分析进而进行横向比较，通过实证中得出的四大石油公司盈利能力水平与WTI油价的回归模型，通过比较二次项系数与拟合优度，分析油价波动对各大石油公司盈利能力的影响程度，并分析油价对中石化盈利能力影响程度不同的原因，进而从4个方面提出中石化应对油价波动、提高盈利能力的对策与建议，包括协调上下游业务以协调发展盈利能力、参与石油期货交易降低盈利风险、推动成品油定价机制的改革等，并为国内石油公司规避油价风险、提高盈利水平提供经验借鉴。
[Abstract]:As an important strategic resource, petroleum plays an important role in the economic development of countries all over the world. At the same time, the contradiction between the rapid development of the world economy and the non-reproducibility of oil resources is becoming more and more prominent, together with the influence of finance, politics and other fields, which leads to the sharp fluctuation of the international crude oil price since the 21st century. The fluctuation of international oil price has a certain degree of influence on the profitability of oil enterprises through the price transmission mechanism. China lacks a voice in the international crude oil pricing market. Among the three major domestic oil companies, Sinopec, as China's largest oil refiner and producer of petroleum products, has the most close relationship with the plate of crude oil sales and the rise and fall of oil prices. As a result, Sinopec is most affected by the fluctuations in international oil prices. The main oil price risks faced by Sinopec are as follows: crude oil purchase price is in line with the international market; on the other hand, the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil is determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the domestic oil price lags behind the international oil price. Therefore, the fluctuation of international oil price will affect Sinopec's profit level to a great extent, thus affecting its profitability. Therefore, it is of great significance for Sinopec's sustainable development and national economic development and energy security to analyze the impact of oil price fluctuation on Sinopec's profitability and put forward countermeasures to deal with oil price fluctuation. On the basis of the theory of oil price and profitability, this paper analyzes the relationship between oil price fluctuation and enterprise profitability, and draws lessons from the existing profitability index system. Build the profitability index system which accords with the present situation of Sinopec enterprises and the content of this paper. Then we use factor analysis and regression analysis to analyze Sinopec's profitability under the background of oil price fluctuation. The regression model between the profitability level of the four oil companies and the WTI oil price is obtained through the empirical analysis. By comparing the quadratic coefficient and the goodness of fit, the influence of oil price fluctuation on the profitability of the major oil companies is analyzed. The reasons why the oil price has different influence on Sinopec's profitability are analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions for Sinopec to deal with the fluctuation of oil price and improve its profitability are put forward from four aspects, including the coordination of upstream and downstream business in order to coordinate the development of profitability. To participate in oil futures trading to reduce profit risk, to promote the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil products, and to provide experience for domestic oil companies to avoid oil price risk and improve profit level.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.72;F406.7;F764.1

【参考文献】