海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 18:28

本文选题：海外投资 + 铜矿产资源　；参考：《江西理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文来源于教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“重要矿产资源海外开发战略选区风险评价技术研究”（项目编号：12YJA790208）。论文以海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险评价为研究对象，在详细综述投资区位选择国内外研究进展以及风险评价相关方法的基础上，应用理论研究与案例分析相结合、定性分析与定量研究相结合等方法对海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险评价进行综合研究。本论文的主要研究内容与结论如下：首先，本论文在国内外相关研究的基础之上，分析了世界铜矿产资源的分布现状、特点、生产、消费情况以及我国开发利用海外铜矿产资源的模式与现状，总结了我国开发利用海外铜矿产资源所存在的主要问题。其次，在深入分析我国铜矿产资源供需现状的基础上，分析了影响铜矿产资源需求的五大因素，并利用BP神经网络建立了铜矿产资源需求情景数学模型，同时对铜矿产资源需求的宏观情景进行了设定，测算出了2015~2025年中国铜矿的需求情景。第三，在海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险因素识别的基础上，构建了海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险评价指标体系，该指标体系包含了八个一级指标和二十三个二级指标。同时在物元理论的基础上引入云模型，并利用Matlab软件进行相应的编程，构建了基于云物元理论的海外铜矿产资源开发战略选区风险评价模型。第四，选取了12个铜矿产资源相对比较丰富的国家作为应用对象，利用所构建的模型分别对其进行了详细的评价分析，，提出了我国海外铜矿产资源开发投资区位选择的战略性建议，即我国海外铜矿产资源开发首选风险评价等级为“较低”的五个国家，次选风险评价等级为“一般”的四个国家，慎选风险评价等级为“较高”和“高”的三个国家，并提出了相应的对策与建议。研究结果表明：模型评价的结果非常符合我国海外铜矿产资源开发实践所涉足的国家，因此，本文所构建的框架体系与理论模型具有较好的理论与实际推广价值，可以为我国海外铜矿产资源开发提供相应的理论依据与决策支持方法。
[Abstract]:This paper comes from the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund project, "study on risk Assessment Technology of important Mineral Resources overseas Development Strategic constituency" (Project No.: 12YJA790208). This paper takes the overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district risk evaluation as the research object, on the basis of the detailed summary investment location choice domestic and foreign research progress as well as the risk appraisal correlation method, applies the theory research and the case analysis unifies. Combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, the risk assessment of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district is studied. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, based on the related research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the distribution status, characteristics, production of copper mineral resources in the world. The consumption situation and the pattern and present situation of overseas copper mineral resources development and utilization in China are summarized, and the main problems existing in the development and utilization of overseas copper mineral resources in China are summarized. Secondly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the present situation of supply and demand of copper mineral resources in China, the paper analyzes the five factors that affect the demand for copper mineral resources, and establishes the scenario mathematical model of copper mineral resources demand by using BP neural network. At the same time, the macroscopical situation of copper mineral resource demand is set up, and the demand scenario of copper mine in China from 2015 to 2025 is calculated. Thirdly, on the basis of identifying the risk factors of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic constituency, the risk evaluation index system of overseas copper mineral resources development strategy district is constructed. The index system includes eight first-grade indexes and twenty-three second-class indexes. At the same time, the cloud model is introduced on the basis of matter-element theory, and the corresponding programming is carried out by using Matlab software, and the risk evaluation model of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district based on cloud matter-element theory is constructed. Fourthly, 12 countries with relatively rich copper mineral resources are selected as the application objects, and the models are used to evaluate and analyze them in detail. The paper puts forward the strategic suggestions for the location selection of overseas copper mineral resources development and investment in China, that is, five countries with lower risk evaluation grade and four countries with a secondary risk evaluation grade "average" in overseas copper mineral resources development. Three countries with higher risk evaluation grade and higher risk evaluation grade are carefully selected, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The results show that the results of the model evaluation are very consistent with the countries involved in the overseas copper mineral resources development in China. Therefore, the framework system and the theoretical model constructed in this paper have good theoretical and practical promotion value. It can provide corresponding theoretical basis and decision support method for overseas copper mineral resources development in China.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.32

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