气候变化与碳减排约束下的中国造纸业发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 13:17

本文选题：气候变化 + 碳减排　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球气候变化给人类的生产、生活带来了严重的影响。本文分别通过太阳活动、人类碳排放与全球气候变化的相关性分析发现：人类活动排放的以二氧化碳为主要成分的温室气体的快速增加是造成全球气温变暖的主要因素之一。因此,碳减排成为维持人类自身生存发展的重要课题。造纸行业不仅消耗大量煤炭、石油、天然气等一次能源,而且需要消耗大量电力这种二次能源。一次能源消耗和二次能源生产都会排放大量二氧化碳。随着经济发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国成为纸类产品生产和消费第一大国。生产的快速增长引起二氧化碳排放比例的大幅增加。为了了解整个造纸行业二氧化碳排放情况,本文首先从微观层面分析造纸企业生产工艺流程,以及流程各个环节的碳足迹。在此基础上,利用KAYA二氧化碳排放量计算模型和LMDI因子分解方法,进一步从宏观层面分别从能源消耗二氧化碳排放强度、能源结构、能源利用效率、行业发展水平四方面分析影响我国造纸行业二氧化碳排放量的影响因素。结果显示从1996到2010年,同种能源碳排放强度对二氧化碳排放量没有显著影响,行业发展是持续推动碳排放量增加的主要因素,而能源利用效率提高会减少碳排放量,能源结构变化波动较大,且对二氧化碳排放的影响也最大。根据IPCC的GHG计算工具,通过对蒸汽消耗的碳排放、耗电碳排放和生物质能源碳排放三方面能源碳排放计算,基于LCA并运用流程分析法对造纸生产流程碳足迹进行了系统分析。结果显示,我国典型制浆造纸线碳汇率不到0.76,远远小于1,不符合低碳造纸的要求。并通过与国外发达国家对比,发现我国造纸行业在能源消耗方面存在的问题和碳减排的空间。在以上影响因素分析和碳足迹分析的基础上,分别从扩大企业规模、提高产业集中度、林纸一体化、优化原料结构、加强技术改造等方面指出了我国造纸行业发展方向与路径,并提出了一些保障性政策建议。
[Abstract]:Global climate change has had a serious impact on human production and life. Through the correlation analysis of solar activity, human carbon emission and global climate change, this paper finds that the rapid increase of greenhouse gas with carbon dioxide as the main component of human activity is one of the main factors causing global warming. Therefore, carbon emission reduction has become an important issue to maintain the survival and development of human beings. Paper industry not only consumes a lot of primary energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas, but also needs a lot of secondary energy. Both primary energy consumption and secondary energy production emit large amounts of carbon dioxide. With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard, China has become the largest country in the production and consumption of paper products. Rapid growth in production has led to a significant increase in the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions. In order to understand the carbon dioxide emissions of the whole papermaking industry, this paper firstly analyzes the process flow and the carbon footprint of each link of the process from the micro level. On this basis, using the KAYA carbon dioxide emission calculation model and LMDI factorization method, the energy consumption carbon dioxide emission intensity, energy structure and energy use efficiency are further analyzed from the macro level, Four aspects of industry development level analysis of China's paper industry carbon dioxide emissions impact factors. The results show that from 1996 to 2010, the intensity of carbon emissions from the same energy source had no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions, and industry development was the main factor that continued to promote the increase of carbon emissions, while the improvement of energy efficiency would reduce carbon emissions. The energy structure fluctuates greatly, and the effect on carbon dioxide emission is the biggest. According to the GHG calculation tool of IPCC, the carbon footprint of papermaking process is systematically analyzed based on LCA and process analysis, through the calculation of carbon emissions from steam consumption, electricity consumption and biomass energy emissions. The results show that the carbon exchange rate of typical pulping and papermaking line in China is less than 0.76, far less than 1, which does not meet the requirements of low carbon papermaking. By comparing with the developed countries, the paper finds out the problems in energy consumption and the space of carbon emission reduction in China's paper industry. On the basis of the analysis of influencing factors and carbon footprint, this paper points out the development direction and path of China's paper industry from the aspects of expanding the scale of enterprises, increasing industrial concentration, integrating forest and paper, optimizing raw material structure, strengthening technical transformation, etc. And put forward some safeguard policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.83;F205

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