基于改进蒙特卡罗算法的能效电厂项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 19:37

【摘要】：能效电厂是提高能源效率，实现供需资源协同优化的电力需求侧管理的重要途径，河北省建立以政府引导、市场运作、多方参与的能效电厂综合运作模式，成为一种创新且典型的运作模式。项目的风险评估和风险控制措施的研究将有效减小风险发生可能性和损失程度，对于河北省能效电厂项目的顺利开展以及该模式的推广具有重要意义。论文在对河北省能效电厂运作模式调查分析的基础上，首先，运用WBS-RBS风险矩阵与故障树法组合的方法，全面系统地识别项目风险。以河北省能效电厂项目工作分解结构与风险分解结构耦合得到的风险事件为基础，构建故障树，求解最小割集，得到具有模式特色的能效电厂项目风险因素清单。其次，用Logistic混沌序列改进蒙特卡罗算法进行项目风险分析。确定输出变量与输入风险因素的函数关系式以及各风险因素的概率分布，运用Logistic混沌理论产生不依赖于假定分布的随机数，，通过多次模拟确定项目总体风险的概率分布，得到项目风险发生的最大可能性等级和各个风险因素的灵敏度排序。最后，根据模拟结果和灵敏度排序提出项目风险指标及运作过程的风险控制措施。论文提出的风险分析方法和控制措施可以为政府等职能部门防范风险以及全国能效电厂建设项目的顺利开展提供参考，从而提高我国能源效率，促进节能减排目标的实现。
[Abstract]:Energy efficiency power plant is an important way to improve energy efficiency and realize demand-side management of power supply and demand. Hebei Province has established a comprehensive operation mode of energy efficiency power plant with government guidance, market operation and multi-participation. Become an innovative and typical mode of operation. The study of risk assessment and risk control measures of the project will effectively reduce the possibility of risk occurrence and the degree of loss. It is of great significance for the smooth development of the energy efficiency power plant project in Hebei Province and the promotion of the model. Based on the investigation and analysis of the operation mode of energy efficiency power plants in Hebei Province, firstly, the method of combining WBS-RBS risk matrix with fault tree method is used to identify the project risks in a comprehensive and systematic way. Based on the risk events obtained from the coupling of the work breakdown structure and the risk decomposition structure of the energy efficiency power plant project in Hebei Province, the fault tree is constructed, the minimum cut set is solved, and the list of risk factors of the energy efficiency power plant project with the pattern characteristics is obtained. Secondly, we use Logistic chaotic sequence to improve Monte Carlo algorithm for project risk analysis. The function relationship between the output variable and the input risk factor and the probability distribution of each risk factor are determined. The probability distribution of the total risk of the project is determined by multiple simulations by using Logistic chaos theory to generate random numbers independent of the assumed distribution. Get the maximum probability level of project risk occurrence and the sensitivity ranking of each risk factor. Finally, according to the result of simulation and the ranking of sensitivity, the risk control measures of project risk index and operation process are put forward. The risk analysis method and control measures proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the government and other functional departments to prevent risks and the smooth development of the national energy efficiency power plant construction project, thus improving the energy efficiency and promoting the realization of energy saving and emission reduction goals.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TP301.6;F426.61

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