基于灰色系统理论的煤矿项目投资决策研究
发布时间：2018-07-26 10:29
【摘要】：为了适应经济发展，我国的工程项目投资决策方法也在不断的进行深入研究，通过分析不同投资决策方法，取其精华，综合利用其有效的部分，形成新的、科学的、多元化的工程项目投资决策方法。虽然国内外学者对工程项目投资决策方法已经取得了许多成果，但就我国目前状况来看，工程项目投资决策模型研究还是比较落后的。因此，在借鉴和吸收前人研究成果的基础上，综合运用灰色系统理论中的决策模型，采用定性分析方法与定量分析方法相结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法，结合煤矿项目自身的特殊属性，对煤矿项目的投资决策进行研究。而科学的煤矿项目投资决策的作出，不仅要求投资者对该项目的信息有足够了解，更要采用科学、有效的方法对投资项目的待选方案的信息进行处理，并从众多待选方案中选择出其中的最优方案。而恰到好处的煤矿项目投资决策可以有效、合理的控制投资规模，避免重复建设，恰当、充分的利用有限资源，持续、稳定的推动国民经济健康发展。由此可见，对煤矿项目投资决策模型的研究，可以有效的指导煤矿项目投资决策者作出合理的煤矿项目投资决策，对投资方最大限度的获取收益具有重要的理论和现实意义。在煤矿项目的具体研究过程中，首先，对国内外工程项目投资决策的相关文献进行综述，对工程项目投资决策方法进行了比较分析，并对煤矿项目投资决策方法进行了选择；其次，引入灰色系统理论，对灰色系统理论中的灰色聚类决策模型与灰色关联决策模型进行了论述，结合煤矿项目的特殊性，建立适合于煤矿项目的投资决策模型——灰色聚类关联决策模型；再次，通过专家打分的方法确定煤矿项目的投资决策所需要的决策指标，建立煤矿项目投资决策指标体系，并运用所建立的灰色聚类关联决策模型对煤矿项目投资决策进行实证研究，，从5个待兼并的煤矿项目中确定最优方案。最后，通过有效性检验得出在煤矿项目中运用灰色聚类关联决策模型是有效可行的。
[Abstract]:In order to adapt to the economic development, the investment decision-making methods of engineering projects in our country are also being studied in depth. Through analyzing different investment decision-making methods, taking the essence of them and synthetically utilizing their effective parts, we can form new and scientific ones. Diversified investment decision methods for engineering projects. Although scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of achievements in the investment decision methods of engineering projects, the research on investment decision models of engineering projects is still relatively backward in view of the present situation in our country. Therefore, on the basis of drawing lessons from and absorbing the previous research results, the decision model of grey system theory is used synthetically, the qualitative analysis method is combined with the quantitative analysis method, and the theoretical analysis method and the empirical analysis method are combined. Combined with the special attribute of coal mine project, the investment decision of coal mine project is studied. The decision making of scientific coal mine project investment not only requires investors to have sufficient understanding of the information of the project, but also uses scientific and effective methods to deal with the information of the investment project to be selected. The optimal scheme is selected from many alternatives. The appropriate investment decision of coal mine project can effectively, reasonably control the investment scale, avoid repeated construction, make proper and full use of limited resources, continuously and steadily promote the healthy development of the national economy. It can be seen that the study of the decision model of coal mine project investment can effectively guide the decision makers of coal mine project investment to make reasonable decision making of coal mine project investment, and it has important theoretical and practical significance for the investors to obtain the maximum income. In the concrete research process of coal mine project, firstly, the paper summarizes the relevant documents of investment decision of engineering project at home and abroad, compares and analyzes the investment decision method of engineering project, and selects the investment decision method of coal mine project. Secondly, this paper introduces the grey system theory, discusses the grey cluster decision model and the grey correlation decision model in the grey system theory, and combines the particularity of the coal mine project. Set up the investment decision model suitable for coal mine project-grey cluster association decision model; thirdly, through the method of expert scoring to determine the decision index needed for the investment decision of coal mine project, establish the investment decision index system of coal mine project. An empirical study on investment decision of coal mine projects is carried out by using the established grey cluster association decision model, and the optimal scheme is determined from five coal mine projects to be merged. Finally, the validity test shows that it is effective and feasible to use the grey cluster association decision model in the coal mine project.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.21;F224
[Abstract]:In order to adapt to the economic development, the investment decision-making methods of engineering projects in our country are also being studied in depth. Through analyzing different investment decision-making methods, taking the essence of them and synthetically utilizing their effective parts, we can form new and scientific ones. Diversified investment decision methods for engineering projects. Although scholars at home and abroad have made a lot of achievements in the investment decision methods of engineering projects, the research on investment decision models of engineering projects is still relatively backward in view of the present situation in our country. Therefore, on the basis of drawing lessons from and absorbing the previous research results, the decision model of grey system theory is used synthetically, the qualitative analysis method is combined with the quantitative analysis method, and the theoretical analysis method and the empirical analysis method are combined. Combined with the special attribute of coal mine project, the investment decision of coal mine project is studied. The decision making of scientific coal mine project investment not only requires investors to have sufficient understanding of the information of the project, but also uses scientific and effective methods to deal with the information of the investment project to be selected. The optimal scheme is selected from many alternatives. The appropriate investment decision of coal mine project can effectively, reasonably control the investment scale, avoid repeated construction, make proper and full use of limited resources, continuously and steadily promote the healthy development of the national economy. It can be seen that the study of the decision model of coal mine project investment can effectively guide the decision makers of coal mine project investment to make reasonable decision making of coal mine project investment, and it has important theoretical and practical significance for the investors to obtain the maximum income. In the concrete research process of coal mine project, firstly, the paper summarizes the relevant documents of investment decision of engineering project at home and abroad, compares and analyzes the investment decision method of engineering project, and selects the investment decision method of coal mine project. Secondly, this paper introduces the grey system theory, discusses the grey cluster decision model and the grey correlation decision model in the grey system theory, and combines the particularity of the coal mine project. Set up the investment decision model suitable for coal mine project-grey cluster association decision model; thirdly, through the method of expert scoring to determine the decision index needed for the investment decision of coal mine project, establish the investment decision index system of coal mine project. An empirical study on investment decision of coal mine projects is carried out by using the established grey cluster association decision model, and the optimal scheme is determined from five coal mine projects to be merged. Finally, the validity test shows that it is effective and feasible to use the grey cluster association decision model in the coal mine project.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.21;F224
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