基于逐层模糊法的东阳变电站工程风险综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 18:37

【摘要】：电力供应作为社会公共基础行业，与社会经济发展与人民生活息息相关，变电站工程的项目建设不仅经济效益显著，而且具有重大的社会效益。但是，变电站工程项目涉及的因素比较多（规划、设计、投资额、工期、技术、施工、监理、环保等制约因素），使得变电站工程施工建设的全过程受到许许多多复杂影响因素的制约，无论是其经济效益，还是其社会效益，都充满了不确定性，而所有这些同时又受到社会、政治、经济、自然环境等等客观条件的影响与制约，具有巨大的随机性和不可预见性，由此造成了变电站工程项目建设过程中存在着较大的风险。基于此，对变电站工程进行风险及风险分析评价研究具有重要的理论意义和必要的现实意义。一方面，通过对变电站工程风险的分析，，有助于我们加深对其风险的理解，充分认识风险对于变电站工程的影响程度，为风险的化解或分散打好基础；另一方面，通过实际资料对变电站工程风险进行科学评价，有助于我们对其风险进行量化，帮助我们从数量角度来了解变电站工程风险的程度，为今后长期预防措施和避免风险损失通过科学的依据。变电站工程从规划开工建设，到项目竣工交付使用都充满了不确定性，工程项目建设的不同施工作业阶段也同时存在着各种各样的风险。此外，不同的变电站工程，其建设目标各不相同，有的要求工期最短，有的追求利润最大，有的则要使成本费用最小化，等等，因此，如何从整体角度对变电站工程风险进行评价，把握变电站工程总体风险水平，就成为摆在我们现实面前的复杂问题。基于此，本文立足工作单位实践，以东阳变电站工程为样本，对变电站工程风险影响因素进行分析，采用多层模糊综合评价方法建立风险评价指标体系，并对变电站工程风险总体水平进行科学评价，针对评价结果提出相应的风险应对措施，以期对变电站工程风险进行管控提供理论指导，为同类变电站工程风险的总体把握与应对提供参考及借鉴。
[Abstract]:As a social and public basic industry, electricity supply is closely related to the social and economic development and people's life. The project construction of the substation project not only has significant economic benefits, but also has great social benefits. However, there are many factors involved in the substation project (planning, design, investment, time, technology, construction, supervision, environmental protection and so on. " The whole process of construction construction of substation is restricted by many complex factors, whether its economic benefit or its social benefit is full of uncertainty, and all these are influenced and restricted by the objective conditions such as social, political, economic, natural environment and so on. It has great randomness. There is a great risk in the construction of substation project. Based on this, it is of great theoretical significance and necessary practical significance to study and evaluate the risk and risk of substation engineering. On the one hand, through the analysis of the risk of substation engineering, it is helpful for us to deepen the risk of the substation engineering. Understanding, fully understanding the impact of risk on Substation Engineering, and making a good foundation for the solution or dispersion of risk; on the other hand, the scientific evaluation of the risk of substation engineering through actual data helps us to quantify the risk and help us to understand the degree of the risk of the substation engineering from the quantity angle to the future. Long term preventive measures and avoiding risk loss are based on scientific evidence.
The construction of the substation project is full of uncertainty from the construction of the plan to the completion and delivery of the project, and there are various risks in the different construction stages of the project construction. In addition, the construction objectives of different substation projects are different. The cost and cost are minimized, and so on. Therefore, how to evaluate the risk of the substation engineering from the whole point of view and grasp the overall risk level of the substation engineering will become a complicated problem in front of our reality.
Based on this, this paper, based on the practice of the work unit, takes the Dongyang substation project as the sample, analyzes the risk factors of the substation engineering, uses the multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish the risk evaluation index system, and makes a scientific evaluation on the overall level of the substation engineering risk, and puts forward the corresponding risk coping measures aiming at the evaluation results. In order to provide theoretical guidance for the risk management and control of substation engineering, and provide reference for the overall grasp and response of similar substation engineering risks.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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