油田区块操作成本预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-08-02 10:47

【摘要】：随着国内油田开发的不断深入，许多油田区块进入开发的中后期，含水率和开采难度不断上升，为维持产量水平需要投入巨额成本来弥补自然递减，油气操作成本不断攀升。为控制油气操作成本，必须对其进行合理有效的预测。目前区块操作成本预测的主要做法是参照历史水平并根据本年的生产经营、投资计划来进行预测，这种做法缺乏可靠性和准确性。结合油田区块操作成本变动特点，寻找适合实际情况并且预测精度较高的油田区块操作成本预测方法，，对于深化区块成本预算管理、促进区块操作成本的控制和经济效益的提高具有重大意义。基于以上背景，对油田区块操作成本预测方法进行探讨。首先对成本预测方法进行了简单介绍，然后按照生产流程将区块操作成本进行重新划分，在此基础上进行区块操作成本性态分析，将其区分为变动部分和固定部分，并得到油田区块操作成本预测的目标是变动部分即吨油操作成本的预测。继而以东部油田G区块为例，分析了区块操作成本历史数据特点与未来变动趋势，根据不同的应用角度，从诸多成本预测方法中选择了组合时间序列预测法和VAR预测法，对油田区块油气操作成本中的吨油操作成本部分进行了预测。最后，对两种预测方法进行了对比分析，发现组合时间序列预测法具有灵活简便的特点，VAR预测法具有预测精度高的优势。在具体实践应用时需要权衡各种因素，根据不同情况选择适当方法进行预测和分析。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of domestic oilfield development, many oil field blocks enter the middle and late stage of development, the water cut and the difficulty of exploitation are rising constantly. In order to maintain the production level, it is necessary to invest a huge amount of cost to make up for the natural decline, and the operating cost of oil and gas is constantly rising. In order to control the operating cost of oil and gas, reasonable and effective prediction must be made. At present, the main method of block operation cost prediction is to forecast according to the historical level and according to the production and investment plan of this year. This method lacks reliability and accuracy. According to the characteristics of operation cost change in oil field block, this paper looks for a prediction method of oil field block operation cost, which is suitable for the actual situation and has high prediction precision, which is helpful to deepen the budget management of block cost. It is of great significance to promote the control of operation cost and the improvement of economic benefits. Based on the above background, the prediction method of operation cost of oilfield block is discussed. In this paper, the cost forecasting method is introduced briefly, and then the block operation cost is redivided according to the production process. On this basis, the operation cost behavior of the block is analyzed and divided into the variable part and the fixed part. The target of operation cost prediction of oilfield block is the forecast of operating cost of ton oil. Then taking the G block of the eastern oil field as an example, the characteristics of the historical data and the future trend of operation cost of the block are analyzed. According to the different application angles, the combined time series forecasting method and the VAR forecasting method are selected from many cost forecasting methods. The operation cost of ton oil in oil field block is predicted. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the two prediction methods, it is found that the combined time series prediction method is flexible and simple, and VAR prediction method has the advantage of high prediction accuracy. In practical application, it is necessary to weigh various factors and choose appropriate methods for prediction and analysis according to different situations.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22;F406.72

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