我国钢铁上市公司可持续增长与现金股利政策的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-08-08 17:04

【摘要】：随着市场坏境的复杂化和市场竞争的激烈化,上市公司能否实现可持续发展是一个重要的研究问题。众所周知,企业的过快增长或者过慢增长都会给企业带来问题。增长过快,会引起公司现有的财务资源不足以支持其发展,此时如果盲目扩张,企业会有破产的风险；反之,如果增长过慢,表明公司有盈余的财务资源没有被充分的利用,如果不及时解决,则会被竞争激烈的市场淘汰或者被收购。在西方国家,可持续增长问题得到了广泛的重视,然而在我国,上市公司的管理层对这一问题的重视程度还不高。基于此,研究上市公司可持续增长问题具有重大的意义。 股利政策、资本结构和投资融资决策是财务管理的三大政策,而股利政策作为三大财务管理决策中的重要组成部分,是其他决策的延伸。在股利政策中,现金股利政策是最为重要的。在可持续增长的两大因素(经营效率和财务政策)中,财务政策由资产负债率和留存收益率两个指标体现,而留存收益率与现金股利支付率是此消彼长的关系。因此,现金股利政策就和可持续增长建立起了联系。具体来说,现金股利政策影响公司的融资能力和融资决策,最终会对上市公司的可持续增长产生影响。 改革开放以来,我国钢铁行业迅速的成长和发展。在产量、产品种类和多样化等方面都取得了进步。然而,金融危机以后,我国整体钢铁行业整体利润显著下降,并且在2009年,诸多钢铁上市公司出现亏损。虽然此后业绩稍有好转,但是钢铁上市公司整体业绩仍表现不佳,增长缓慢。作为工业的基础行业,一方面钢铁行业具有较高的产业关联性,另一方面,钢铁行业又受到铁矿石等原材料的影响。因此,研究我国钢铁上市公司可持续增长与现金股利政策的相关性具有重要的意义。 本文选取2007-2011年A股钢铁上市公司作为样本,以范霍恩的静态可持续增长模型为基础,按照差异增长率对样本进行分类,并且结合不同情况下的投资机会进行研究假设,从规范研究的角度提出上市公司在未来不同的投资机会下、管理层应当采取怎样的理性现金股利政策才能实现其财务可持续增长。 实证的研究结果表明,我国钢铁上市公司在制定现金股利政策时存在非理性行为。在高速增长的情况下,当公司未来有较好的投资机会时,公司管理层会增加现金股利。相反,当公司未来投资机会不佳时,公司管理层会减少现金股利。这说明公司管理层在制定现金股利政策时对未来投资机会考虑欠佳。基于此,本文分析我国钢铁上市公司的非理性行为,并对其行为从投资者、政府部门和上市公司三个方面提出相应的意见和建议,旨在希望上市公司能够充分发挥现金股利政策对其可持续增长产生积极的影响。
[Abstract]:With the complication of market bad situation and the fierce market competition, it is an important research question whether listed companies can realize sustainable development. As we all know, too fast growth or too slow growth will bring problems to enterprises. If the growth rate is too fast, the existing financial resources of the company will not be sufficient to support its development. At this time, if the company expands blindly, the enterprise will run the risk of bankruptcy. Conversely, if the growth rate is too slow, the financial resources that indicate the company has a surplus will not be fully utilized. If it is not solved in time, it will be eliminated or acquired in a highly competitive market. In western countries, the problem of sustainable growth has received extensive attention. However, in our country, the management of listed companies pay little attention to this issue. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the sustainable growth of listed companies. Dividend policy, capital structure and investment financing decision are the three major policies of financial management, and dividend policy, as an important part of the three major financial management decisions, is the extension of other decisions. In dividend policy, cash dividend policy is the most important. In the two factors of sustainable growth (operating efficiency and financial policy), the financial policy is reflected by the asset liability ratio and the retention rate of return, while the relationship between the retention rate and the cash dividend payment rate is the same. Therefore, the cash dividend policy and sustainable growth to establish a link. Specifically, the cash dividend policy will affect the financing ability and financing decision of the company, and will ultimately have an impact on the sustainable growth of listed companies. Since the reform and opening up, China's iron and steel industry has grown rapidly and developed. Progress has been made in terms of output, product types and diversification. However, after the financial crisis, the overall profits of the whole steel industry in China decreased significantly, and in 2009, many listed steel companies made losses. Although the results improved slightly since then, but the overall performance of listed steel companies still underperforming, slow growth. As the basic industry of industry, on the one hand, the iron and steel industry has a higher industrial relevance, on the other hand, the iron and steel industry is also affected by iron ore and other raw materials. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the correlation between the sustainable growth and the cash dividend policy of China's listed iron and steel companies. In this paper, A share steel listed companies from 2007 to 2011 are selected as samples, based on van Horne's static sustainable growth model, the samples are classified according to different growth rates, and the research hypotheses are combined with investment opportunities under different conditions. From the perspective of normative research, this paper puts forward what kind of rational cash dividend policy should be adopted by the management in order to realize the sustainable financial growth of listed companies in the future under different investment opportunities. The empirical results show that irrationality exists in the formulation of cash dividend policy in China's listed iron and steel companies. In the case of high growth, when the company has better investment opportunities in the future, the company management will increase cash dividend. On the contrary, when the company's future investment opportunities are not good, the company's management will reduce the cash dividend. This shows that the company's management in the formulation of cash dividend policy for future investment opportunities are not well considered. Based on this, this paper analyzes the irrational behavior of listed iron and steel companies in our country, and puts forward corresponding opinions and suggestions from three aspects of investors, government departments and listed companies. The aim is to make full use of the cash dividend policy to exert the positive influence on the sustainable growth of listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.31

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