内蒙古工业能源利用效率测算及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-13 13:19

【摘要】：随着全球经济的高速发展,能源作为工业生产的重要原材料,同劳动力、资本等生产要素一样,已成为当今世界经济发展的重要基础性战略资源。近十多年来,中国处于工业化、城镇化的急剧推进时期,这带动了化工、电力、石油加工、有色金属等高耗能工业行业的迅速发展。截至2011年底,我国国内生产总值是2000年的近4.77倍。事实上,正是这些重型化工业的发展,才支撑了中国经济几十年来的高速增长。但是,由于经济增长主要依靠高投入、高消耗、高污染的粗放型模式,造成能源利用率低、污染严重,能源需求出现迅速增加的态势,这对节能减排造成了严峻挑战。内蒙古自治区作为能源大省,近十年来经济出现了高速增长的趋势。2011年底的工业生产总值是2000年的约14.7倍,但是经济的高速增长和能源的高消耗是密切相关的。由于产业结构不合理、能源消费结构不合理等问题导致能源消耗越来越严重,能源利用效率越来越低下,从而在一定程度上阻碍了经济的快速发展。因此,提高能源利用效率是实现可持续发展的必要途径。本文以内蒙古30个工业行业为研究对象,利用2000—2011年各行业的面板数据,采取DEA效率评价方法测算并分析了各行业的能源效率及节能潜力。通过构建Tobit回归模型,测算了各指标对能源效率的影响程度。超效率DEA结果表明,30个工业行业的平均能源效率呈先上升后下降的趋势,考察期内工业行业间的能源效率差异呈波动的态势。由DEA节能潜力计算结果看,采矿业的节能潜力较大且呈增长趋势。由聚类分析将30个行业分为4大类,能源效率较高的行业有通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,石油和天然气开采业。在影响能源效率的因素中,工业结构和资本深化对内蒙古工业能源效率有正向作用且显著,其中工业结构对能源效率的影响程度较大；能源价格对能源效率有负向作用且显著。这说明增加重工业比重、提高人均资本量和降低能源价格有利于提高内蒙古工业能源利用效率。最后,本文提出了发展内蒙古煤电产业,同时有效引导轻工业行业等建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the global economy, energy, as an important raw material in industrial production, has become an important basic strategic resource for the development of the world economy, like labor force, capital and other factors of production. In recent ten years, China is in the period of industrialization and urbanization, which has driven the rapid development of chemical industry, electric power, petroleum processing, non-ferrous metals and other energy-consuming industries. By the end of 2011, China's GDP was nearly 4.77 times of 2000. In fact, it is these heavy-duty industries that underpin China's rapid economic growth for decades. However, economic growth mainly depends on the extensive pattern of high input, high consumption and high pollution, which results in low utilization of energy, serious pollution and rapid increase of energy demand, which poses a severe challenge to energy conservation and emission reduction. As a big energy province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous region has seen a trend of rapid economic growth in the past decade. The gross industrial product at the end of 2011 is about 14.7 times of that in 2000, but the rapid economic growth is closely related to the high consumption of energy. Due to unreasonable industrial structure and unreasonable energy consumption structure, energy consumption becomes more and more serious, and energy use efficiency is becoming more and more low, thus hindering the rapid development of economy to a certain extent. Therefore, to improve the efficiency of energy use is a necessary way to achieve sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 30 industries in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2011, the energy efficiency and energy saving potential of each industry are calculated and analyzed by using DEA efficiency evaluation method. By constructing Tobit regression model, the influence of each index on energy efficiency is calculated. The results of superefficiency DEA showed that the average energy efficiency of 30 industrial industries increased first and then decreased, and the difference of energy efficiency among industrial industries fluctuated during the investigation period. According to the calculation results of DEA energy saving potential, the energy saving potential of mining industry is large and increasing. By cluster analysis, 30 industries are divided into 4 categories. The industries with high energy efficiency include communications equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, oil and gas mining. Among the factors affecting energy efficiency, industrial structure and capital deepening have a positive and significant effect on industrial energy efficiency in Inner Mongolia, among which industrial structure has a greater impact on energy efficiency, and energy price has a negative and significant effect on energy efficiency. This shows that increasing the proportion of heavy industry, increasing per capita capital and lowering energy prices are conducive to improving the efficiency of industrial energy utilization in Inner Mongolia. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for developing coal and electricity industry in Inner Mongolia and guiding light industry effectively.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.2

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