绥化地区电力市场运行安全与风险管理研究
发布时间：2018-08-20 19:31
【摘要】：电力行业是基础性公用事业,电力市场的参与者不仅要面临因市场竞争而带来的价格波动风险,在追求利润最大化的同时,还必须保证电力系统的安全运行。电力行业承受着电力系统市场外部的社会风险和内部的经济运行风险的双重压力。它是否正常运行,对于经济发展、社会生活有着巨大的影响,加强电力市场的风险管理能有效避免引起严重的经济问题和社会问题。 目前我国的电力市场运行管理多以经验为主,管理手段不尽科学合理。各个地区由于经济、技术水平的差异,造成外界条件的变化导致电力市场的不稳定,电力市场安全保障率低,并由此引发大量电力安全问题。因此建立一套科学合理的电力市场风险评估体系对于我国电力市场有着很重要的意义,可以使现有电力市场的事发控制或滞后控制变成超前控制,保证电力市场的安全运行。 本文主要基于以上目的,通过充分了解风险管理理论在电力市场的应用现状,结合风险管理的理论知识,分析电力市场以及风险的特点,初步建立了电力市场风险评估体系,并进行了实证研究。具体内容包括：一、对国内外电力市场的发展状况进行研究,并对电力市场风险研究进行闸述,进而从电力企业运行结构、电网建设、电力价格矛盾以及电力运营四方面对中国电业面临的新问题进行总结归纳。电力市场的风险成因分析。结合实际案例,系统分析和总结电力市场中各种风险的形成原因,为后续指标体系的评价和构建以及防范措施研究打好基础。三、电力市场风险评估体系的构建。主要包括电力市场风险评估体系的目标、范围和程序,电力市场风险识别,电力市场评估指标体系的构建,电力市场风险分析和风险评价模型的构建等,其中,在电力市场风险评估体系建立的过程中主要采用了层次分析法、半定量化风险矩阵、模糊综合评价法、灰色聚类法和熵权值法。四、电力市场风险评估体系的实证应用。利用建立的电力市场风险评估体系对绥化电网工程进行系统风险识别,分析和评价最终确定出绥化电网系统的风险等级。五、电力市场风险源的应对措施。主要针对风险评估过程中识别出的重要风险源进行详细分析并提出相应的应对措施。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is a basic public utility. The participants in the power market should not only face the risk of price fluctuation brought by the market competition, but also guarantee the safe operation of the power system while pursuing the maximum profit. The power industry is under the double pressure of the external social risk and the internal economic operation risk of the power system market. It has great influence on economic development and social life. Strengthening the risk management of electricity market can effectively avoid serious economic and social problems. At present, the operation and management of electric power market in our country is mainly based on experience, and the means of management are not scientific and reasonable. Because of the difference of economic and technical level, the change of external conditions leads to the instability of electricity market, the low security rate of electricity market, and a large number of electric power safety problems. Therefore, it is very important to establish a set of scientific and reasonable power market risk assessment system for our country's electricity market, which can make the existing power market control or lag control into advanced control, and ensure the safe operation of the electricity market. Based on the above purpose, this paper analyzes the power market and its risk characteristics by fully understanding the current situation of the application of the risk management theory in the electricity market and combining the theoretical knowledge of the risk management, and initially establishes the power market risk assessment system. An empirical study was carried out. The specific contents include: first, the development of domestic and foreign electricity market is studied, and the research on the risk of power market is described, and then from the operation structure of electric power enterprises and the construction of power grid, This paper summarizes the new problems faced by China's electricity industry from four aspects of power price contradiction and power operation. Analysis of the cause of risk in electricity market. Combined with practical cases, this paper systematically analyzes and summarizes the reasons for the formation of various risks in the electricity market, and lays a good foundation for the evaluation and construction of the follow-up index system and the study of preventive measures. Third, the construction of power market risk assessment system. It mainly includes the target, scope and procedure of power market risk assessment system, the identification of electricity market risk, the construction of power market evaluation index system, the construction of power market risk analysis and risk assessment model, etc. In the process of establishing the power market risk assessment system, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), semi-quantitative risk matrix, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, grey clustering method and entropy weight method are mainly used. Fourth, the empirical application of power market risk assessment system. The system risk identification of Suihua power network project is carried out by using the established power market risk assessment system, and the risk grade of Suihua power network system is finally determined by analyzing and evaluating it. Fifth, the countermeasures of the power market risk source. This paper mainly analyzes the important risk sources identified in the process of risk assessment and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
本文编号：2194749
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is a basic public utility. The participants in the power market should not only face the risk of price fluctuation brought by the market competition, but also guarantee the safe operation of the power system while pursuing the maximum profit. The power industry is under the double pressure of the external social risk and the internal economic operation risk of the power system market. It has great influence on economic development and social life. Strengthening the risk management of electricity market can effectively avoid serious economic and social problems. At present, the operation and management of electric power market in our country is mainly based on experience, and the means of management are not scientific and reasonable. Because of the difference of economic and technical level, the change of external conditions leads to the instability of electricity market, the low security rate of electricity market, and a large number of electric power safety problems. Therefore, it is very important to establish a set of scientific and reasonable power market risk assessment system for our country's electricity market, which can make the existing power market control or lag control into advanced control, and ensure the safe operation of the electricity market. Based on the above purpose, this paper analyzes the power market and its risk characteristics by fully understanding the current situation of the application of the risk management theory in the electricity market and combining the theoretical knowledge of the risk management, and initially establishes the power market risk assessment system. An empirical study was carried out. The specific contents include: first, the development of domestic and foreign electricity market is studied, and the research on the risk of power market is described, and then from the operation structure of electric power enterprises and the construction of power grid, This paper summarizes the new problems faced by China's electricity industry from four aspects of power price contradiction and power operation. Analysis of the cause of risk in electricity market. Combined with practical cases, this paper systematically analyzes and summarizes the reasons for the formation of various risks in the electricity market, and lays a good foundation for the evaluation and construction of the follow-up index system and the study of preventive measures. Third, the construction of power market risk assessment system. It mainly includes the target, scope and procedure of power market risk assessment system, the identification of electricity market risk, the construction of power market evaluation index system, the construction of power market risk analysis and risk assessment model, etc. In the process of establishing the power market risk assessment system, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), semi-quantitative risk matrix, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, grey clustering method and entropy weight method are mainly used. Fourth, the empirical application of power market risk assessment system. The system risk identification of Suihua power network project is carried out by using the established power market risk assessment system, and the risk grade of Suihua power network system is finally determined by analyzing and evaluating it. Fifth, the countermeasures of the power market risk source. This paper mainly analyzes the important risk sources identified in the process of risk assessment and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
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