重大石化项目社会稳定风险评估方法与指标体系探索

发布时间：2018-08-23 15:19

【摘要】：石化产业作为一国的基础产业,投资强度高、工程技术密集、产品加工链长,对国家工业产值快速增长贡献率大。纵观全球强国的崛起,均离不开石化行业的支撑。时至今日,石化产业的原油加工量和乙烯产量与钢产量、发电量等一样,仍然是衡量一个国家经济是否发达的核心标志。经过近50年的奋斗,我国已经成为举世公认的石化大国,2011年我国的炼油能力为世界第二,石化产值已占国内工业总产值的1/6,名副其实地成为传统经济的支柱产业。然而,作为一个“新兴加转轨”的产业,我国由石化大国走向石化强国还需要一个相当漫长的过程。总起来说,石化项目的分布不均、生产门类覆盖不足,产业链条效率不高是制约我国石化腾飞的瓶颈。要打破这个瓶颈,无疑还需要我们综合权衡,实施具有战略意义的石化项目。但是,我们必须认识到,石化项目的实施对社会将带来诸多的不利影响,会引发区域内包括经济、政治、安全等领域的稳定风险,同时,石化项目污染严重,事故率高,且易发生连锁性反应,一旦不慎,就会对区域内的自然生态环境造成不可逆的损害。石化项目的这些特点决定了其属于“敏感类项目”,因此,对于重大石化项目的前期推进工作就必然要包含认真、慎重、负责的社会稳定风险评估。石化项目的两面性要求我们既要抓住机遇,迎头赶上,又不能操之过急,大干快上。要在科学发展观和可持续发展思路的指导下,充分考量石化项目的社会效应、环境效应。努力让石化项目的落成投产所带来的外部性能够为广大民众所接受,以期达到整个社会福利的最大化。本文就是从源头上考察石化项目影响社会稳定的节点。依据相关理论,追朔风险源,把握节点,在较为完整的覆盖各风险节点的基础上,通过构筑模型等方式对其社会稳定风险进行评估。此外,研究中发现的大量实例表明,相当部分的石化项目是通过影响自然环境进而引发社会稳定风险。因此,评估石化项目对自然环境的影响,是对其社会稳定风险评估的重中之重,应当具有一票否决的作用。有鉴于此,本文在对石化项目进行社会稳定风险评估时,将其对自然环境领域的社会稳定风险予以了单独考察,并在传统的评估方法之上,提出基于风险承载力角度的自然环境稳定风险评估。论文主要包括五个部分： 1.重大石化项目社会稳定风险评估的意义背景和相关研究。主要描述了我国石化行业当前概况和相关概念,简单介绍了一些项目社会稳定风险理论研究和实践研究。这一部分主要是对重大石化项目的社会稳定风险评估研究的必要性的现实依据进行阐述。 2.对重大石化项目社会稳定风险评估相关概念的表述和对社会稳定风险评估机理的分析。首先厘清重大工程项目、重大石化项目、重大石化项目自然环境风险承载力的相关概念。为将承载力概念从生态研究领域引入石化项目所处的自然环境做出理论铺垫。进而对社会燃烧理论,利益相关者理论和可持续发展理论做分析,为后文的系统评估打下了基础。 3.石化项目社会稳定风险评估体系的建立。通过将社会燃烧理论、利益相关者理论的分析,构建起社会环境稳定风险评估指标体系。整个指标体系包括五个一级指标和十八个二级指标,所选取的这些指标能较为全面、科学、系统的覆盖社会环境各个方面的风险点。通过AHP法、专家打分法等模型对指标数据进行处理,根据三分法确定石化项目的社会环境稳定风险水平。 4.石化项目自然环境风险承载力评估体系的建立。在深入分析文献资料、咨询石化项目从业人员、对石化项目生产特征和技术经济特性具有一定了解的基础之上,得出19个变量指标。通过生态足迹模型和状态空间模型构建出合乎逻辑的石化项目自然环境风险承载力模型,利用此模型,将对石化项目的自然环境风险评估转化为对当前项目的承载空间的承载状态进行评估,从而确定石化项目的自然环境风险承载力水平。 5.总结与展望。该部分总结前文的一些研究成果,通过在构筑指标体系的研究过程中发现的重要问题进行了披露。并在结合当前国情的情况下,提出了对石化项目社会稳定风险评估的一些建议。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry, as a basic industry of a country, has high investment intensity, intensive engineering technology, long product processing chain and great contribution to the rapid growth of national industrial output value. After nearly 50 years of struggle, China has become a recognized petrochemical country. In 2011, China's refining capacity is the second largest in the world. Petrochemical output value has accounted for 1/6 of the domestic industrial output value, and it has become a pillar industry of traditional economy. In general, the uneven distribution of petrochemical projects, insufficient coverage of production categories, and inefficient industrial chain are the bottlenecks restricting the development of China's petrochemical industry. Petrochemical projects.
However, we must realize that the implementation of petrochemical projects will bring a lot of adverse impacts on society, which will lead to regional stability risks including economic, political, security and other fields. At the same time, petrochemical projects have serious pollution, high accident rate and are prone to chain reactions. Once careless, it will cause irreversible impacts on the natural ecological environment in the region. These characteristics of petrochemical projects determine that they belong to "sensitive projects". Therefore, the early promotion of major petrochemical projects must include serious, prudent and responsible risk assessment of social stability. Under the guidance of scientific outlook on development and the idea of sustainable development, the social and environmental effects of petrochemical projects should be fully considered, and the externalities brought about by the completion and commissioning of petrochemical projects should be accepted by the general public in order to maximize the social welfare.
Based on relevant theories, tracing back the sources of risks, grasping the nodes, and on the basis of more complete coverage of the risk nodes, this paper evaluates the social stability risks by constructing models. In addition, a large number of examples found in the study show that a considerable part of petrochemical projects. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of petrochemical projects on the natural environment is the most important part of the social stability risk assessment and should have a veto effect. In view of this, this paper will evaluate the social stability risk of petrochemical projects in the field of natural environment. The risk of social stability is investigated separately, and on the basis of traditional assessment methods, the risk assessment of natural environment stability based on risk bearing capacity is proposed.
The thesis mainly consists of five parts.
1. Significance background and related research on social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects. This paper mainly describes the current situation and related concepts of China's petrochemical industry, and briefly introduces some theoretical and practical research on social stability risk of major petrochemical projects. Realistic basis for elaboration.
2. The related concepts of social stability risk assessment of major petrochemical projects and the mechanism of social stability risk assessment are described. Firstly, the concepts of natural environment risk bearing capacity of major petrochemical projects, major petrochemical projects and major petrochemical projects are clarified. However, the environment makes a theoretical groundwork, and then analyzes social combustion theory, stakeholder theory and sustainable development theory, which lays the foundation for the later systematic evaluation.
3. Establishment of social stability risk assessment system for petrochemical projects. Through the analysis of social burning theory and stakeholder theory, a risk assessment index system for social environment stability is established. The whole index system includes five first-level indicators and eighteen second-level indicators. Through AHP method, expert scoring method and other models to deal with the index data, according to the three-part method to determine the social environmental stability risk level of petrochemical projects.
4. Establishment of natural environmental risk bearing capacity assessment system for petrochemical projects. Based on in-depth analysis of literature, consulting petrochemical project practitioners, and having a certain understanding of petrochemical project production characteristics and technical and economic characteristics, 19 variable indicators are obtained. The natural environmental risk bearing capacity model of petrochemical project is used to transform the natural environmental risk assessment of petrochemical project into the assessment of the bearing space of the current project so as to determine the natural environmental risk bearing capacity of petrochemical project.
5. Summarize and prospect. This part summarizes the previous research results, reveals the important issues found in the process of constructing the index system, and puts forward some suggestions on the social stability risk assessment of petrochemical projects in the light of the current national conditions.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D630;F426.722

【参考文献】