负荷预测对电力市场竞争的影响分析

发布时间：2018-08-28 12:11

【摘要】：随着电力市场化,电力市场竞争也逐渐产生,电能就如其他商品一样成为盈利物品,发电商会站在自己的角度,从自己所掌握的市场信息,来考虑电力市场的竞争,分析电力市场环节中对自己盈利有关的问题,以使自己能够获得最优利益。而电力市场分析最常用的几个近似模型为：Cournot模型、Stackelber模型(领导者-跟随者模型)和Forchheimer(领导者-价格接受者模型),针对以上电力市场模型,本论文在基于负荷预测的基础上对电力市场做了一些分析。在完全信息下,分析了Cournot模型、Stackelber模型和Forchheimer的电力市场竞争。首先分析了完全信息下,电力市场的纳什均衡。假设两个生产发电商中有一个对市场电力负荷进行预测,另一个不参与市场负荷预测,在此基础上利用博弈论方法计算出电力市场的市场均衡。对比负荷预测前后的市场均衡,以及发电商收益,同时分析负荷预测增量k与电力市场的均衡电价,市场力的关系。结果表明,负荷预测对Stackelber模型中市场均衡电价,市场力,以及发电商收益影响最大。负荷预测可以提高发电商收益,实时调整电力市场均衡电价,提高本地市场力。发电商收益随着预测精度的精确性而增加。在不完全信息下,本文分别讨论了Cournot模型、Stackelber模型电力市场竞争。模型基于发电商1只知道自己的发电边际成本,发电商2知道发电商1的发电成本。利用博弈论方法计算出负荷预测前后的电力市场的市场均衡。分析负荷预测增量k与电力市场的均衡电价,市场力的关系。结果表明：负荷预测后的市场竞争中,具有信息优势的一方将获得更高的收益。负荷预测可以提高发电商收益,实时调整电力市场均衡电价,提高本地市场力。发电商收益随着预测精度的精确性而增加,预测精度在33%以内对发电商收益有益。
[Abstract]:With the marketization of electricity, competition in the electricity market has gradually emerged. Electricity, like other commodities, has become a profitable object. From its own point of view, the power generation chamber considers the competition in the electricity market from the market information it possesses. In order to obtain the best profit, the paper analyzes the problems related to the profit in the electricity market. The most commonly used approximate models for power market analysis are the: Cournot model Stackelber model (leader-follower model) and Forchheimer (leader-price receiver model). Based on load forecasting, this paper makes some analysis on electricity market. On the basis of complete information, the Cournot model Stackelber model and the competition between Forchheimer and electricity market are analyzed. Firstly, the Nash equilibrium of electricity market under complete information is analyzed. Assuming that one of the two producers forecasts the market load and the other does not participate in the market load forecasting, the game theory is used to calculate the market equilibrium of the electricity market. Compared the market equilibrium before and after the load forecasting, and analyzed the relationship between the load forecast increment k and the equilibrium electricity price and market power. The results show that load forecasting has the greatest influence on the market equilibrium price, market power and generator income in the Stackelber model. Load forecasting can improve the income of generators, adjust the equilibrium price of electricity market in real time, and improve local market power. The profit of the generator increases with the accuracy of the forecast. Under incomplete information, this paper discusses the Cournot model Stackelber model electricity market competition. The model is based on the fact that generator 1 only knows its own marginal cost of generation, and generator 2 knows the cost of generator 1. The market equilibrium of electricity market before and after load forecasting is calculated by using game theory method. The relationship between load forecasting increment k and equilibrium electricity price and market power in power market is analyzed. The results show that in the market competition after load forecasting, the party with information advantage will get higher income. Load forecasting can improve the income of generators, adjust the equilibrium price of electricity market in real time, and improve local market power. The profit of generator increases with the accuracy of prediction, and the accuracy of forecast is less than 33%.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F224

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