中长期负荷预测在南阳电网需求侧管理中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 17:36

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展，电力市场发生了较大的变化，电力峰谷差逐年拉大，电力供需矛盾突出，这增加了电力负荷预测及需求侧管理的难度，同时也威胁到电网的安全稳定运行。因此，做好电网中长期负荷预测，是安排电网规划，做好电力需求侧管理的前提，而做好电力需求侧管理是保证电网经济安全运行的重要手段。本文通过对南阳市负荷成分及其比例进行分析，重点对南阳市典型用电负荷情况和历史数据进行统计分析，在此基础上，利用经典负荷预测法和灰色预测法对南阳电网中长期的负荷进行预测，并采用加权平均法给出最终预测结果，针对对预测结果及其精度进行纵向和横向校验，其精度满足负荷预测要求，最终给出最适合南阳地区的中长期负荷预测值。然后在对预测结果分析的基础上，发现南阳电网负荷缺口呈逐渐拉大趋势，而电源项目建设滞后，，造成该区域长期存在硬缺电现象，给电网安全稳定造成了影响，从而提出深挖需求侧管理潜力是应对电力短缺的最有效手段。本文认真分析了本地需求侧管理现状、存在的问题和制约需求侧管理发展的因素，从管理、技术、经济方面提出适应于本地区特点的相关需求侧管理意见，从而有效移峰填谷，提高区域负荷率，减小负荷缺口，以期缓解供电压力，保证电网安全运行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, great changes have taken place in the electricity market, the power peak and valley difference has been enlarged year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity is prominent, which increases the difficulty of power load forecasting and demand-side management. At the same time, it also threatens the safe and stable operation of power grid. Therefore, the long-term load forecasting is the premise of power grid planning and demand-side management, while the DSM is an important means to ensure the safe operation of power grid economy. Based on the analysis of load composition and its proportion in Nanyang City, this paper focuses on the statistical analysis of typical load and historical data of Nanyang City, on the basis of which, This paper makes use of the classical load forecasting method and grey forecasting method to forecast the medium and long term load of Nanyang power network, and gives the final forecast result by using the weighted average method, and carries on the longitudinal and horizontal check to the forecast result and its precision. Its precision meets the requirement of load forecasting, and finally gives the medium and long term load forecasting value which is most suitable for Nanyang area. Then on the basis of the analysis of the forecast results, it is found that the load gap of Nanyang power network is gradually widening, and the construction of power supply project is lagging behind, which causes the phenomenon of hard electricity shortage in this area for a long time, and has an impact on the security and stability of the power grid. It is suggested that the potential of deep-digging demand-side management is the most effective way to deal with the power shortage. This paper analyzes the present situation of local demand-side management, the existing problems and the factors restricting the development of demand-side management, and puts forward relevant demand-side management opinions adapted to the characteristics of the region from the aspects of management, technology and economy, so as to move the peak and fill the valley effectively. To improve the regional load rate and reduce the load gap in order to ease the power supply pressure and ensure the safe operation of the power grid.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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