电网企业基建项目进度风险管理理论研究

发布时间：2018-10-17 10:50

【摘要】：进度、质量、成本是项目管理的三个基本要素,三要素之间存在着相辅相成同时又相互制约的关系,其中对于进度计划的控制直接影响项目参与方对于质量和成本的控制。因此研究项目进度风险的管理对于风险主体识别关键风险因素,制定系统的风险应对策略,有效规避风险损失具有十分重要的现实意义。电网企业的基建项目具有投资额巨大、建设工期长、参与方众多、施工过程复杂等特点。在研究电网企业基建项目进度风险管理问题时所需要考虑的风险因素是数量庞大、种类繁多且复杂多变的。本文针对电网企业的基建项目进度风险管理问题,在大量阅读项目进度风险管理相关理论的基础上,首先对国内外学者在项目进度管理和风险管理领域的研究现状进行了探讨,而后对进度管理的基本定义、进度计划的制定和控制流程和风险管理的流程等理论进行了阐述,在此基础上着重分析了电网企业基建项目的基本特点和主要进度风险因素,提出一种以任务为阶段变量的串行进度生成机制为基础的基于遗传算法的串行进度风险管理模型,并研究了模型的算法实现过程。然后通过一个包含12项任务的单项目多模式资源受限项目调度案例验证了模型的可行性和实用性,并从项目总工期、资源消耗均值、资源消耗均方差和资源供求关系等角度对案例结果进行了分析比较,最终获得进度风险应对能力较强的方案。
[Abstract]:Schedule, quality and cost are the three basic elements of project management. The three elements are complementary and mutually restricted. The control of schedule directly affects the quality and cost control of the project participants. Therefore, the study of project schedule risk management is of great practical significance for the risk subject to identify key risk factors, formulate systematic risk response strategies, and effectively avoid risk losses. The capital construction projects of power grid enterprises are characterized by huge investment, long construction period, numerous participants and complex construction process. The risk factors that need to be considered when studying the risk management of power grid enterprise infrastructure project schedule are a large number of various and complex risk factors. On the basis of reading the theory of project schedule risk management, this paper discusses the current research situation of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of project schedule management and risk management. Then, the basic definition of schedule management, the formulation of schedule plan and the process of control and risk management are expounded. On this basis, the basic characteristics and main schedule risk factors of power grid enterprise capital construction project are analyzed emphatically. A serial schedule risk management model based on genetic algorithm (GA) based on serial schedule generation mechanism with task as phase variables is proposed and the algorithm implementation process of the model is studied. Then the feasibility and practicability of the model are verified by a single-project multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling case with 12 tasks. The results of the case are analyzed and compared from the point of view of the variance of resource consumption and the relationship between supply and demand of resources.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61

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