基于模糊神经网络的国际石油合同风险管理
发布时间：2018-10-23 14:04
【摘要】：全面分析和管理国际石油合同中的各种风险，对于中国的石油公司从事海外石油资源的勘探开发、有效规避各类风险具有十分重要的现实意义。本文首先分析了国际石油合同风险管理的现状及存在的问题，指出了国际石油合同风险管理的必要性。在具体的工作实践中，国际石油合同风险类型多种多样，风险的大小和重要程度各不相同。本文通过对国际石油合同的条款分解，利用头脑风暴法结合KJ（亲和图）法，对国际石油合同风险进行了识别，，确定了其影响因素，从而建立了国际石油合同的风险评价指标体系。 国际石油合同风险的综合评价是一个非常复杂的系统评价问题，是国际石油项目管理的一个重要环节。本文将模糊评判法和人工神经网络相结合，提出构建模糊神经网络模型对国际石油合同风险进行定量评价的方法，在国内外还没有学者这样尝试，具有一定的先进性和创新性。利用模糊综合评判定量化模糊风险因素，利用神经网络弱化了确定各因素权重时的人为因素，提高了评判结果的可靠性和准确性，同时避免了大量的繁琐计算，使评价工作有效并简单易行。以中亚地区国际石油合同的相关数据作为实例，本文对所建立的模糊神经网络进行了验证，结果表明该模型预测误差小，是一种可靠、有效的国际石油合同风险评价模型。最后本文提出了中国石油公司规避国际石油合同风险的措施，为海外勘探开发合同的订立提供了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Comprehensive analysis and management of various risks in international petroleum contracts are of great practical significance for Chinese oil companies to engage in the exploration and development of overseas oil resources and to effectively avoid all kinds of risks. This paper first analyzes the present situation and existing problems of risk management in international petroleum contracts, and points out the necessity of risk management in international petroleum contracts. In the concrete work practice, the international petroleum contract risk type is various, the risk size and the important degree are different. In this paper, by decomposing the terms of international petroleum contract, using brainstorming method and KJ (affinity graph) method, the risk of international petroleum contract is identified, and the influencing factors are determined. Thus, the risk evaluation index system of international petroleum contract is established. The comprehensive evaluation of international petroleum contract risk is a very complicated systematic evaluation problem and an important part of international petroleum project management. This paper combines the fuzzy evaluation method with the artificial neural network, and puts forward the method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of international petroleum contract based on the fuzzy neural network model, which has not been tried by scholars at home and abroad, and it is advanced and innovative to a certain extent. The quantitative fuzzy risk factors of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial factors in determining the weight of each factor are weakened by using neural network, the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results are improved, and a large number of tedious calculations are avoided at the same time. Make the evaluation work effective and easy to carry out. Taking the relevant data of international petroleum contract in Central Asia as an example, the fuzzy neural network is verified in this paper. The results show that the model has small prediction error and is a reliable and effective risk assessment model for international petroleum contract. Finally, the paper puts forward some measures to avoid the risk of international oil contract, and provides some suggestions for the conclusion of overseas exploration and development contract.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.22;TP183
本文编号：2289470
[Abstract]:Comprehensive analysis and management of various risks in international petroleum contracts are of great practical significance for Chinese oil companies to engage in the exploration and development of overseas oil resources and to effectively avoid all kinds of risks. This paper first analyzes the present situation and existing problems of risk management in international petroleum contracts, and points out the necessity of risk management in international petroleum contracts. In the concrete work practice, the international petroleum contract risk type is various, the risk size and the important degree are different. In this paper, by decomposing the terms of international petroleum contract, using brainstorming method and KJ (affinity graph) method, the risk of international petroleum contract is identified, and the influencing factors are determined. Thus, the risk evaluation index system of international petroleum contract is established. The comprehensive evaluation of international petroleum contract risk is a very complicated systematic evaluation problem and an important part of international petroleum project management. This paper combines the fuzzy evaluation method with the artificial neural network, and puts forward the method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of international petroleum contract based on the fuzzy neural network model, which has not been tried by scholars at home and abroad, and it is advanced and innovative to a certain extent. The quantitative fuzzy risk factors of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial factors in determining the weight of each factor are weakened by using neural network, the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results are improved, and a large number of tedious calculations are avoided at the same time. Make the evaluation work effective and easy to carry out. Taking the relevant data of international petroleum contract in Central Asia as an example, the fuzzy neural network is verified in this paper. The results show that the model has small prediction error and is a reliable and effective risk assessment model for international petroleum contract. Finally, the paper puts forward some measures to avoid the risk of international oil contract, and provides some suggestions for the conclusion of overseas exploration and development contract.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学（华东）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.22;TP183
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