配电网建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 18:35

【摘要】：随着电力行业的迅速发展,配电网建设的重要性也越来越凸显。目前国家将资金投入到了配电网的建设中,我国电网的形式也开始从亏损转向盈利。配电网的发展是社会发展、国家进步的先行军,配电网项目的建设效果直接关系着国民经济的加速前进。而在配电网建设过程中,投入资金多、项目工程规模庞大、需要保障较高的可靠性、安全性等条件,导致项目建设中需要承担的风险较高。配电网建设项目的建设周期长,样本资料存在误差、不确定性强等特点,因此使得规划过程中的不确定因素很多。配电网建设项目是一项具有高度综合性和技巧性的工作,同时也是一次具有较多投入与产出、高风险的决策过程。因此需要对配电网建设项目的风险影响因素进行完善的评价后,并实施及时的防控,才能降低配电网建设项目的风险。本文通过对配电网建设项目风险管理中关键问题的研究,提出了比较完善的配电网建设项目风险管理的理论框架和方法体系。同时,配电网建设的风险管理是一个动态的过程,在项目的不同时期,风险决策的重要性也会不同,使得具体管理过程也不同。论文在建立了综合评价理论框架及其指标体系,综合考虑政策、技术、经济和管理等相关因素,针对配电网建设项目的风险情况建立基于模糊灰色评价法的风险综合评价模型,较好地解决了配电网建设项目评价中的指标和权重的科学性问题。.并以某配电网建设项目为例,对其项目风险进行了结合定性与定量指标的评价研究。通过评价结果可以看出,配电网经营企业存在着一定的风险,需要加以防控。针对配电网建设过程中种种风险因素,本文根据风险管理理论以及以往实践经验,提出相应的风险防范策略,以消除风险或减少风险因素所带来的危害。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power industry, the importance of distribution network construction is becoming more and more prominent. At present, the state has invested funds into the construction of distribution network, and the form of power grid in our country has also begun to shift from loss to profit. The development of distribution network is the development of society and the advance of national progress. The construction effect of distribution network project is directly related to the accelerated progress of national economy. In the process of distribution network construction, the project needs to ensure high reliability and safety, which leads to the high risk in the construction of the project. The construction period of distribution network construction project is long, the sample data exists error, and the uncertainty is strong, so there are many uncertain factors in the planning process. Distribution network construction project is a highly comprehensive and technical work, but also a decision-making process with more input and output, high risk. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the risk factors of distribution network construction project and implement timely prevention and control to reduce the risk of distribution network construction project. Based on the research of the key problems in the risk management of distribution network construction project, this paper puts forward a relatively perfect theoretical framework and method system of the distribution network construction project risk management. At the same time, distribution network construction risk management is a dynamic process, in different periods of the project, the importance of risk decision-making will be different, making the specific management process is also different. In this paper, the comprehensive evaluation theory framework and its index system are established, and the comprehensive risk evaluation model based on fuzzy grey evaluation method is established according to the risk situation of distribution network construction projects, considering the relevant factors such as policy, technology, economy and management. The scientific problem of index and weight in the evaluation of distribution network construction project has been solved well. Taking a distribution network construction project as an example, the project risk is evaluated by combining qualitative and quantitative indexes. It can be seen from the evaluation results that there are certain risks in distribution network management enterprises, which need to be prevented and controlled. According to the risk factors in the construction of distribution network, according to the risk management theory and previous practice experience, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk prevention strategy to eliminate the risk or reduce the risk factors.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61

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