基于VAR的制造业上市公司财务风险评价实证研究
发布时间：2018-11-11 15:29
【摘要】：制造业作为我国工业领域的传统行业,不仅对我国经济增长有重要贡献,也关乎国家安定,而且在解决就业问题上发挥着不可替代的作用,但是由于发展不均衡、技术含量不高、管理理念陈旧、对风险认识不够等原因,我国制造业企业水平参差不齐,与国外的发达国家相比还是存在较大差距,在当前竞争日益激烈的国际市场环境下容易被淘汰,存在较大的财务风险。而且一些上市的制造业企业,是我国的一些老的国有企业,这些企业一般管理理念方面较为陈旧,对风险认识不够,面对风险的抵抗力也就较弱,因此对制造业上市公司财务风险评价就显得尤为重要。国内外在财务风险的认定、风险评价方法和模型构建上都有一定的研究成果,但是现有研究中指标体系的选取大都采取定性的方法且没有考虑到市场风险。 文章首先阐述了企业财务风险的概念及其相关理论知识,重点分析了制造业上市公司财务风险的特点、产生原因及财务风险评价主要方法,为企业财务风险评价奠定了理论基础。随后给出了影响制造业上市公司财务风险的主要因素及评价指标的选取原则与方法,并采用定性与定量相结合的方法对评价指标进行了筛选,构建了制造业上市公司财务风险评价指标体系和评价模型,并以50家制造业上市公司为财务数据样本,分别对未融入VAR与融入VAR的指标体系进行了因子分析,并用回归分析法对两组因子分析的有效性进行比较,结果表明,融入风险价值VAR的指标体系能更好的评价制造业上市公司财务风险。最后,以所构建的财务风险评价模型为基础,对部分制造业上市公司进行了财务风险评价的具体应用,给出了相应财务风险大小,对企业的生产经营决策提供了一定的指导作用。 研究表明,通过聚类分析构建的制造业上市公司财务风险评价指标体系更为有效,且将VAR引用财务风险评价指标体系具有必要性和有效性。融入VAR的制造业上市公司财务风险评价模型的实施与应用,将为投资者、经营者和管理者评估企业财务风险提供科学的依据,具有重要的实际意义。
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in China's industrial field, manufacturing industry not only has an important contribution to China's economic growth, but also relates to the stability of the country, and plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. However, due to the uneven development, the manufacturing industry plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. The technical content is not high, the management idea is old, the risk awareness is not enough, the level of our manufacturing enterprises is uneven, compared with the developed countries abroad, there is still a big gap. In the current competitive international market environment is easy to be eliminated, there is a greater financial risk. Moreover, some of the manufacturing enterprises listed on the market are some old state-owned enterprises in our country. These enterprises are relatively old in general management concepts, do not have enough understanding of risks, and are less resistant to risks. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. At home and abroad, there are some research results in the identification of financial risk, risk assessment method and model construction, but in the existing research, the selection of index system mostly adopts qualitative method and does not take market risk into account. Firstly, this paper expounds the concept of enterprise financial risk and its related theoretical knowledge, and analyzes the characteristics, causes and main methods of financial risk evaluation of listed companies in manufacturing industry. It lays a theoretical foundation for enterprise financial risk evaluation. Then the main factors affecting the financial risk of listed companies in manufacturing industry and the selection principles and methods of evaluation indexes are given, and the evaluation indexes are screened by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The financial risk evaluation index system and evaluation model of manufacturing listed companies are constructed. Taking 50 listed manufacturing companies as financial data samples, the factor analysis is carried out on the index system of unincorporated VAR and VAR, respectively. The effectiveness of the two groups of factor analysis is compared with regression analysis. The results show that the index system of VAR can better evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. Finally, on the basis of the financial risk evaluation model, the paper gives the specific application of financial risk evaluation to some listed companies in manufacturing industry, and gives the corresponding financial risk. To the enterprise's production and management decision to provide a certain guiding role. The research shows that the index system of financial risk evaluation of listed manufacturing companies is more effective, and it is necessary and effective to apply VAR to the index system of financial risk evaluation. The implementation and application of the financial risk evaluation model of listed manufacturing companies incorporated into VAR will provide a scientific basis for investors, managers and managers to evaluate the financial risks of enterprises, which is of great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.4
本文编号：2325283
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in China's industrial field, manufacturing industry not only has an important contribution to China's economic growth, but also relates to the stability of the country, and plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. However, due to the uneven development, the manufacturing industry plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. The technical content is not high, the management idea is old, the risk awareness is not enough, the level of our manufacturing enterprises is uneven, compared with the developed countries abroad, there is still a big gap. In the current competitive international market environment is easy to be eliminated, there is a greater financial risk. Moreover, some of the manufacturing enterprises listed on the market are some old state-owned enterprises in our country. These enterprises are relatively old in general management concepts, do not have enough understanding of risks, and are less resistant to risks. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. At home and abroad, there are some research results in the identification of financial risk, risk assessment method and model construction, but in the existing research, the selection of index system mostly adopts qualitative method and does not take market risk into account. Firstly, this paper expounds the concept of enterprise financial risk and its related theoretical knowledge, and analyzes the characteristics, causes and main methods of financial risk evaluation of listed companies in manufacturing industry. It lays a theoretical foundation for enterprise financial risk evaluation. Then the main factors affecting the financial risk of listed companies in manufacturing industry and the selection principles and methods of evaluation indexes are given, and the evaluation indexes are screened by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The financial risk evaluation index system and evaluation model of manufacturing listed companies are constructed. Taking 50 listed manufacturing companies as financial data samples, the factor analysis is carried out on the index system of unincorporated VAR and VAR, respectively. The effectiveness of the two groups of factor analysis is compared with regression analysis. The results show that the index system of VAR can better evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. Finally, on the basis of the financial risk evaluation model, the paper gives the specific application of financial risk evaluation to some listed companies in manufacturing industry, and gives the corresponding financial risk. To the enterprise's production and management decision to provide a certain guiding role. The research shows that the index system of financial risk evaluation of listed manufacturing companies is more effective, and it is necessary and effective to apply VAR to the index system of financial risk evaluation. The implementation and application of the financial risk evaluation model of listed manufacturing companies incorporated into VAR will provide a scientific basis for investors, managers and managers to evaluate the financial risks of enterprises, which is of great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.4
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