“煤—电—运”物流系统的不可操作性风险研究

发布时间：2019-01-04 08:53

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展,中国煤炭产业、电力产业、运输产业三者之间的互联程度加深。受到各种风险因素的影响而协调运作基础脆弱,使得系统的整体安全性受到了严重的威胁。本文主要研究的是煤炭系统、电力系统、运输系统组成的大系统的可靠性,并对这个大系统的风险进行分析。本文首先提出了“煤-电-运”(CET)物流系统,由煤炭、电力、运输等子系统组成的一个具有闭环结构的复杂系统。基于“煤-电-运”物流系统的闭环性结构,构建出CET物流系统的基本模型和风险模型,提出“煤-电-运”物流系统的不可操作性风险。利用不可操作性投入产出方法对CET物流系统风险传递的变化趋势做宏观实证分析。结果是,风险传递矩阵最大正特征值呈现递增趋势,并且增速在逐渐加快,这表明电力系统、煤炭系统、铁路运输系统之间风险的传递强度明显加强。本文对“煤-电-运”物流系统的闭环结构进行了合理巧妙的切割,利用贝叶斯网络方法构建了CET物流系统风险的贝叶斯网络模型,通过分析风险的传导机制,来研究CET物流系统的不可操作性风险。研究发现,当CET物流系统总风险水平达到某个值时,系统变为不可操作性,这个总风险水平值即成为CET物流系统的不可操作性风险。研究“煤-电-运”物流系统的不可操作性风险意义重大,CET物流系统风险的结构、状态、演化趋势都要求在风险管理体系上进行顶层设计。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the interconnection among coal industry, electric power industry and transportation industry deepens. Under the influence of various risk factors, the coordinated operation foundation is weak, and the overall security of the system is seriously threatened. In this paper, the reliability of large scale system composed of coal system, power system and transportation system is studied, and the risk of this large system is analyzed. In this paper, a new (CET) logistics system, which is composed of coal, electric power and transportation subsystems, is proposed in this paper. It is a complex system with closed loop structure. Based on the closed-loop structure of "coal-electric-transportation" logistics system, the basic model and risk model of CET logistics system are constructed, and the inoperable risk of "coal-electric-transportation" logistics system is put forward. By using inoperable input-output method, this paper makes a macro empirical analysis on the trend of risk transmission in CET logistics system. The results show that the maximum positive eigenvalue of the risk transfer matrix is increasing and the increasing speed is increasing. This indicates that the intensity of risk transfer between power system coal system and railway transportation system is obviously strengthened. In this paper, the closed loop structure of "coal-electric-transportation" logistics system is cut reasonably and skillfully, and the Bayesian network model of CET logistics system risk is constructed by using Bayesian network method, and the transmission mechanism of risk is analyzed. To study the CET logistics system is not operational risk. It is found that when the total risk level of the CET logistics system reaches a certain value, the system becomes inoperable, and the total risk level becomes the non-operational risk of the CET logistics system. It is of great significance to study the non-operational risk of "coal-electric-transportation" logistics system. The structure, state and evolution trend of the risk in CET logistics system require the top-level design on the risk management system.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F259.2;F426.61

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