基于效能—全寿命周期成本的变电站经济性评价

发布时间：2019-01-30 12:36

【摘要】：全寿命周期管理(life circle management, LCM)理念在新建的部分变电项目的投资管理中,已初显成效；并在变电站改造、设备选型和设备采购招投标中也发挥了积极的效用。LCM在变电项目中的应用虽还处于初始阶段,但已取得了较大的进展和相应成果。然而,电网企业作为变电站的投资主体,除了合理控制变电站工程资金投入,实现企业价值最大化,最首要的任务还是要保障变电站运行的安全可靠,保证供电质量,满足社会电力需求,使项目投资能兼顾经济效益和社会效益。本文基于综合评价的思想,在变电站LCM应用成果的基础上,建立了变电站效能-成本(UC)分析评价体系。UC体系包含效能和全寿命周期成本(life circle cost, LCC)两个互补的评价指标,分别从社会效能成本和电网公司投资成本两个方面评价变电站项目方案。变电站的效能主要考虑了社会停电损失、资产利用程度、土地机会成本以及环境成本。其中,土地机会成本以及环境成本的引入,是对于效能体系的创新和完善。土地机会成本和LCC中的土地的租赁成本统一为土地的影子成本,反映了土地的现实价值和潜在价值。在环境成本中,本文全面地考虑了变电站的电磁辐射、无线电干扰、噪声污染以及SF6引起的温室效应,并给出了将环境影响都量化为经济指标的计算方法。变电站LCC包括初始投资成本、运行维护成本、故障成本和退役成本四个部分。在前人的研究基础上,本文对这四项成本又做了更加精细的划分,并给出了详细计算方法。其中,初始投资成本不仅仅计及了设备购置成本(包括建设的相关费用)、土地租赁成本,还创新的引入了技术改造成本以及贷款利息,并推导了等额本息还款方式下的利息总额计算公式。对LCC的细致划分,有利于衡量项目长期投入,配合量化计算,有助于公司做出最优决策,促进公司节约成本和提升利润。最后,本文以500kV典型设计变电站为例,应用UC分析评价方法,论述了气体绝缘金属封闭开关设备(gas insulated switch, GIS)变电站和空气绝缘开关设备(air insulated switch, AIS)变电站的区别,以及分别在效能和经济性两方面各自的优势,评价两方案的综合性能,并给出相应结论。最后,对影响方案综合评价结果的因素做不确定性分析。
[Abstract]:The concept of life-cycle management (life circle management, LCM) has already been effective in the investment management of some newly built substation projects. The application of LCM in substation transformation, equipment selection and equipment procurement bidding has also played a positive role. Although the application of LCM in substation project is still in the initial stage, it has made great progress and corresponding achievements. However, as the main investment body of substation, the most important task of power grid enterprises is to ensure the safety and reliability of substation operation and the quality of power supply, in addition to reasonably controlling the investment of substation project and maximizing the value of the enterprise. To meet the needs of social electricity, so that the project investment can take into account economic and social benefits. Based on the idea of comprehensive evaluation and on the basis of the application of substation LCM, a (UC) analysis and evaluation system of substation efficiency and cost is established in this paper. The UC system includes efficiency and (life circle cost, with full life cycle cost. LCC) two complementary evaluation indexes, respectively, from the social efficiency cost and the grid company investment cost two aspects to evaluate the substation project plan. The efficiency of substation mainly considers social blackout loss, asset utilization, land opportunity cost and environmental cost. Among them, the introduction of land opportunity cost and environmental cost is the innovation and perfection of efficiency system. The land opportunity cost and the land lease cost in LCC are unified as the shadow cost of land, which reflects the real value and potential value of land. In the environmental cost, the electromagnetic radiation, radio interference, noise pollution and Greenhouse Effect caused by SF6 are considered in this paper, and the calculation method of quantifying the environmental impact into economic index is given. Substation LCC includes four parts: initial investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, fault cost and decommissioning cost. On the basis of previous studies, this paper makes a more detailed division of the four costs, and gives a detailed calculation method. Among them, the initial investment cost not only includes the purchase cost of equipment (including the related cost of construction), the cost of land lease, but also the innovative introduction of technological transformation costs and loan interest. The formula for calculating the total amount of interest under the equivalent principal and interest repayment mode is also derived. The detailed division of LCC is helpful to measure the long-term investment of the project, cooperate with the quantitative calculation, help the company to make the best decision, promote the company to save the cost and increase the profit. Finally, taking the typical 500kV substation as an example, using the UC analysis and evaluation method, the paper discusses the difference between the gas insulated metal closed switch equipment (gas insulated switch, GIS) substation and the air insulated switchgear (air insulated switch, AIS) substation. The comprehensive performance of the two schemes is evaluated and the corresponding conclusions are given. Finally, the uncertainty analysis of the factors influencing the results of the comprehensive evaluation of the program is made.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TM63

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