火电与风电投资效益比较研究
发布时间：2019-03-28 15:57
【摘要】：我国经济自改革开放以来从以计划经济为主转变为以市场经济为主,项目投资也呈现出规模大、技术含量高、投资主体和融资渠道多元化的特点。而在实际操作过程中,电厂建设项目投资规模大,运营周期较长。几十亿元的投资如果出现决策失误,所造成的损失将会难以估量。这些都使得电力项目对投资效益评价的要求更为严格。我国电力市场经过十多年的发展,市场规模不断扩大,市场创新不断深化,市场信息披露不断完善,市场与国际接轨的速度不断加快。进入21世纪以来,在煤电价格矛盾激化的情况下,我国火电厂亏损加剧,火电投资大幅降低。与此同时,风能作为一种高效清洁能源正受到越来越多国家的高度重视,相应的风电场的投资也越来越受到人民的关注。随着越来越多的企业开始投资风电,人们对于风电投资的关注度也越来越高。在现今的大环境下,企业到底应该继续投资火电厂还是应该转变思路发展风电行业,两种投资的效益如何,笔者认为有必要进行研究、分析和讨论。 本文的宗旨是想建立一个多层次模糊综合评价模型来对电厂建设项目进行投资效益评价,继而对火电与风电两种投资的效益优劣进行比较分析。本文首先介绍了国内外火电与风电的投资现状与投资效益的基础理论之后,通过电厂建设项目投资效益评价的基本理论内容来设计了投资效益评价的指标体系,并使用层次分析法确定各层指标的权重,相对客观地来反映对各指标的重要程度。在确定权重之后,选择一个火电建设项目和一个风电建设项目,通过实际调查研究,得出相对科学可靠的实际数据,最后通过模糊综合评价模型来评价电厂建设项目的投资效益；经过论证研究,得出结论火力发电项目投资的经济效益较优,风电建设项目投资的社会效益更具优势。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, China's economy has changed from planned economy to market economy. Project investment is also characterized by large scale, high technology content, diversified investment subjects and financing channels. But in the actual operation process, the power plant construction project investment scale is large, the operation cycle is relatively long. Billions of dollars of investment if there is a mistake in decision-making, the losses will be incalculable. All of these make the investment benefit evaluation of electric power projects more stringent. After more than ten years' development, China's electric power market has expanded its scale, deepened its innovation, improved the disclosure of market information, and quickened the pace of market integration with the international market. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the intensification of the contradiction between coal and electricity prices, the loss of thermal power plants in China has intensified, and the investment in thermal power has been greatly reduced. At the same time, wind energy, as an efficient and clean energy, has been paid more and more attention by more and more countries, and the investment of wind power farm has been paid more and more attention by the people. As more and more enterprises begin to invest in wind power, people pay more and more attention to wind power investment. In today's environment, whether the enterprises should continue to invest in thermal power plants or should change their thinking to develop wind power industry, the author thinks it is necessary to study, analyze and discuss the benefits of the two kinds of investment. The purpose of this paper is to establish a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the investment benefits of power plant construction projects, and then to compare and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of investment: thermal power and wind power. Firstly, this paper introduces the investment status and the basic theory of investment benefit of thermal power and wind power at home and abroad, and then designs the index system of investment benefit evaluation through the basic theory content of investment benefit evaluation of power plant construction project. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reflect the importance of each index objectively. After the weight has been determined, a thermal power construction project and a wind power construction project are selected to obtain relatively scientific and reliable actual data through actual investigation and research. Finally, the investment benefit of power plant construction project is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Through demonstration and research, it is concluded that the economic benefit of thermal power project investment is better, and the social benefit of wind power construction project investment is more advantageous.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.61
本文编号：2449016
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, China's economy has changed from planned economy to market economy. Project investment is also characterized by large scale, high technology content, diversified investment subjects and financing channels. But in the actual operation process, the power plant construction project investment scale is large, the operation cycle is relatively long. Billions of dollars of investment if there is a mistake in decision-making, the losses will be incalculable. All of these make the investment benefit evaluation of electric power projects more stringent. After more than ten years' development, China's electric power market has expanded its scale, deepened its innovation, improved the disclosure of market information, and quickened the pace of market integration with the international market. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the intensification of the contradiction between coal and electricity prices, the loss of thermal power plants in China has intensified, and the investment in thermal power has been greatly reduced. At the same time, wind energy, as an efficient and clean energy, has been paid more and more attention by more and more countries, and the investment of wind power farm has been paid more and more attention by the people. As more and more enterprises begin to invest in wind power, people pay more and more attention to wind power investment. In today's environment, whether the enterprises should continue to invest in thermal power plants or should change their thinking to develop wind power industry, the author thinks it is necessary to study, analyze and discuss the benefits of the two kinds of investment. The purpose of this paper is to establish a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the investment benefits of power plant construction projects, and then to compare and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of investment: thermal power and wind power. Firstly, this paper introduces the investment status and the basic theory of investment benefit of thermal power and wind power at home and abroad, and then designs the index system of investment benefit evaluation through the basic theory content of investment benefit evaluation of power plant construction project. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reflect the importance of each index objectively. After the weight has been determined, a thermal power construction project and a wind power construction project are selected to obtain relatively scientific and reliable actual data through actual investigation and research. Finally, the investment benefit of power plant construction project is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Through demonstration and research, it is concluded that the economic benefit of thermal power project investment is better, and the social benefit of wind power construction project investment is more advantageous.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.61
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