大中型水电工程中移民收入水平预测模型研究

发布时间：2019-06-28 18:55

【摘要】：移民收入水平的恢复和提高一直是水电工程移民安置的核心问题。传统的移民收入水平的预测研究大都以定性为主,鲜见针对电站建设期和运营期移民收入水平进行连续时间序列预测的研究。本文构建了三种水电工程移民收入预测理论模型,包括:基于农用地产值计算的移民年收入预测模型、基于小康社会及新农村建设目标的移民年收入预测模型、基于当地城镇最低生活保障的移民年收入预测模型,并利用某大型水电项目的真实调查数据进行了测算和分析,以期建立符合我国经济社会发展状况的西南地区水电工程移民收入水平。通过对我国西南某大型水电站某移民县的案例测算,证明了测算模型及其结果的可行性和合理性,研究成果可以为移民政策的调整、改革及完善提供依据。
[Abstract]:The recovery and improvement of immigrants' income level has always been the core issue of resettlement in hydropower projects. Most of the traditional studies on the prediction of immigration income level are qualitative, but few studies on continuous time series prediction of migrant income level during power station construction and operation are rare. In this paper, three theoretical models of migration income prediction for hydropower projects are constructed, including: the annual income prediction model based on the calculation of agricultural land output value, the migration annual income prediction model based on the goal of well-off society and new rural construction, and the migration annual income prediction model based on the minimum living security in local cities and towns, and the real survey data of a large hydropower project are used to calculate and analyze. In order to establish the income level of hydropower project migrants in southwest China in line with the economic and social development of our country. Through the calculation of a migrant county of a large hydropower station in southwest China, the feasibility and rationality of the calculation model and its results are proved, and the research results can provide the basis for the adjustment, reform and perfection of immigration policy.
【作者单位】：中国长江三峡集团公司;清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室;长江勘测规划设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51179086)
【分类号】：F426.93

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