OECD国家结构性赤字的通胀效应研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 03:34

本文关键词：OECD国家结构性赤字的通胀效应研究　出处：《湖南商学院学报》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

更多相关文章： 结构性赤字 通胀率 BVAR 门限协整

【摘要】：本文结合当前世界经济"四低"形势和财政和货币政策的同向扩张,综合考虑财政政策和货币政策对通胀的影响。将结构性赤字与通胀率作为研究对象,采用协整检验方法、BVAR模型和门限协整检验方法,对结构性赤字与通胀率之间的关系进行研究。主要结论是:结构性赤字在多数国家中对通胀率产生显著正效应,影响通胀率的主要因素主要是结构性赤字,OECD国家是财政政策主导的非李嘉图制度。结构性赤字的通胀效应不是由经济增长引发的,而是债务货币化在推高物价水平的同时未能改变利率为零甚至负利率状况导致的。通胀率对长短期利率和经济增长率产生显著的正效应,对失业率、储蓄率、汇率产生显著负效应。结构性赤字与通胀率之间不存在门限效应,实证分析采用的线性回归方法和结果是可靠的。
[Abstract]:Combined with the current "four low" situation in the world economy and the same expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, this paper comprehensively considers the impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy on inflation. Taking the structural deficit and inflation rate as the research object, we use co integration test, BVAR model and threshold co integration test to study the relationship between structural deficit and inflation rate. The main conclusion is that structural deficit has a significant positive effect on inflation rate in most countries. The main factor affecting the inflation rate is mainly structural deficit. OECD countries are the non Ricardo system dominated by fiscal policy. The inflation effect of structural deficit is not caused by economic growth, but debt monetization is pushing up the price level, and at the same time, it has failed to change interest rate to zero or even negative interest rate. The rate of inflation has a significant positive effect on the long and short term interest rate and the economic growth rate, and has a significant negative effect on the unemployment rate, the savings rate and the exchange rate. There is no threshold effect between the structural deficit and the inflation rate, and the linear regression method and results used in the empirical analysis are reliable.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F821.5;F811.4
【正文快照】： 一、引言近几年来,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,财政赤字和通货膨胀对宏观经济的长期稳定性变得越来越重要(Tiwari,Bolat,2015)。2016年全球经济进一步放缓,原因是发达经济体增长滞缓、大宗商品价格持续低迷、全球贸易疲软和资本流动日减。2016年全球经济的大格局,仍表现为

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