财政受压驱动下地方政府债务扩张风险评估及防控

发布时间：2018-01-19 22:33

本文关键词： 地方政府债务新型城镇化战略财政体制供给侧扩张财政政策　出处：《财会月刊》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：城市化发展战略、财政体制内生性问题、供给层面调整、新财税制度启动及扩张财政政策实施是近年来影响地方财政收支规模和走向的重要因素,在这些因素的驱动下,各级地方以体制内和体制外路径积极扩张债务。本文分析了现阶段地方政府债务风险,结果显示:总体负债率、债务率水平离警戒线还有距离,加上或有债的债务率接近警戒线;偿债率水平偏高;2015年赤字率不高,但追加分析2016年加上专项债的预算赤字率离警戒线很近。中期债务预期分析显示:2023年地方政府债务率警戒空间缩小。基于上述结论本文提出了相关对策,以供探讨。
[Abstract]:The urbanization development strategy, the financial system endogeneity question, the supply aspect adjustment, the new finance and taxation system start and the expansion financial policy implementation are the important factors which influence the local financial revenue and expenditure scale and the trend in recent years. Driven by these factors, local governments at all levels actively expand their debt in and out of the system. This paper analyzes the local government debt risk at the present stage, and the results show that the overall debt ratio. The debt rate level is still far from the warning line, and the contingent debt ratio is close to the warning line; The debt service rate is on the high side; In 2015 the deficit rate was low. But the budget deficit rate of 2016 plus earmarked debt was close to the warning line. Analysis of medium-term debt expectations showed that:. In 2023, the warning space of local government debt rate was reduced. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures. For discussion.
【作者单位】：河南农业大学文法学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新型农村社区建设与地方政府行为研究”(项目编号:12ASH005) 2016年河南农业大学社会治理创新研究中心项目“供给侧改革背景下河南农业产业转型的财税政策研究”(项目编号:SGI-2017-03)
【分类号】：F812.5
【正文快照】： 一、引言地方政府债务是地方各级政府部门和机构为实现特定财政职能以公共主体身份主动或被动承担各种债务的总和。近年来,我国地方政府债务增长迅速,引起了学术界、实践界乃至政府层面的高度关注和紧密跟进。债务增长背后根本引致因素是什么?很值得深思。一般来说,与财政收支

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