财政收支与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 04:56

本文关键词： 公共财政收支土地出让收支经济增长 VAR模型 ECM模型　出处：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济增长是宏观调控的重要目标之一,作为宏观调控重要手段之一的财政政策与经济增长存在着密切的关系。改革开放三十多年以来,中国经济实现了快速增长,但时有波动。作为财政政策的主要工具,财政收支如何对经济增长产生影响这一问题值得分析研究。本文在大口径财政收支的视角下,将公共财政收支、国有资本经营收支、政府性基金收支和社会保险基金收支与经济增长关系作为研究对象,并在传统研究公共财政收支与经济增长关系之外,重点研究了政府性基金中的土地出让收支与经济增长的关系。本文采用理论与实证相结合的方法。第二章首先定义我国财政收支范围。第三章梳理了财政收支与经济增长关系的基本理论,从总需求和总供给两个方面入手,将相应的经济增长理论分为需求约束下的经济增长理论和供给约束下的经济增长理论,并对其进行一一分析介绍,试图找出财政收支与经济增长关系的理论基础,其中重点归纳分析了近年来国内新兴的“中国供给学派”理论,并对改革开放以来的财政政策实践进行了总结。第四章和第五章从实证分析的角度出发,分别应用向量自回归模型(VAR)和误差修正模型(ECM)对公共财政收支与经济增长和政府性基金(土地出让收支)与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。最后根据理论与实证分析结果,从中国现有国情出发,有针对性的提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Economic growth is one of the important goals of macro-control. As one of the important means of macro-control, fiscal policy has a close relationship with economic growth. More than 30 years since the reform and opening up. China's economy has achieved rapid growth, but has fluctuated from time to time, as the main tool of fiscal policy. It is worth analyzing and studying how the fiscal revenue and expenditure affect the economic growth. In the perspective of large scale fiscal revenue and expenditure, the public finance revenue and expenditure, the state-owned capital management income and expenditure. Government fund income and expenditure and social insurance fund income and expenditure and economic growth as the object of study, and in addition to the traditional study of the relationship between public finance and economic growth. The relationship between income and expenditure of land transfer and economic growth in government funds is studied. The second chapter defines the scope of fiscal revenue and expenditure in China. The third chapter combs the basic theory of the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth. Starting from the two aspects of aggregate demand and total supply, the corresponding economic growth theory is divided into the economic growth theory under demand constraints and the economic growth theory under supply constraints, and it is analyzed and introduced one by one. This paper tries to find out the theoretical basis of the relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth, which focuses on the induction and analysis of the "Chinese supply School" theory which has emerged in China in recent years. It also summarizes the practice of fiscal policy since the reform and opening up. Chapter 4th and 5th from the perspective of empirical analysis. Applying VAR and ECM respectively to public finance revenue and expenditure and economic growth and government funds (land transfer income and expenditure). The relationship between economic growth and empirical analysis. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results. From the current situation of China, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.4;F124.1

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