中国财政支出结构与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 01:50

本文关键词： 财政支出结构经济增长最优支出规模　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：凯恩斯学说提出了政府在短期总需求不足的情况下，为防止经济进入下滑周期，可以通过财政收支等手段扩大总需求以增加产出熨平经济波动。这一理论自提出以来，世界各国政府都进行实践，在经济下滑周期主动干预。我国在2008年美国爆发次贷危机危及全球经济时，为避免国内经济遭受次贷危机的冲击，中国主动实施刺激性的财政计划，推出四万亿的投资计划，在短期内确实避免了经济遭遇冲击，然而后续逐渐显现出来的通货膨胀、房价飙升和地方政府债务的状况，，将这次的四万亿刺激计划卷入激烈的讨论中。大家讨论主要围绕这次的刺激计划是利大于弊还是弊大于利、如果没有进行干预，经济会呈现什么走向、政府主导的这种大手笔的投资是否缺乏效率，是否造成社会经济资源的大量浪费。与此对应，在五年后的2013十八大报告中提到“处理好政府和市场的关系，使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用”，这代表着今后经济发展的一个大的趋势，即经济市场化程度会越来愈高，政府职能的天枰要逐渐从经济管理方向往公共服务方向倾斜。在这样的大的经济背景下，财政支出作为政府通过财政政策进行经济调控的一个工具，和一个为民众提供公共服务的工具，如何调整其结构使其更好的发挥效用，促进经济增长成为一个值得研究的问题。本文分为五章，第一章主要阐述了研究的背景、理论和实践意义，并简单介绍了本文的研究方案。第二章从国内和国外角度分别介绍了有关财政支出与经济增长这一课题研究的历史和现状，介绍不同学者对这一问题研究方法和结论并进行了对比分析。第三章在研究中国财政支出结构变化趋势和财政支出影响经济增长途径的基础上，提出包含财政支出结构的经济增长理论模型，得出使经济稳态增长率最大化的财政支出结构。第四章采用总产出、各类财政支出、资本存量和劳动力数量建立多元一次线性模型，并根据1993-2005的年度数据进行模型拟合，得出各类财政支出对产出的边际贡献值，并根据第三章模型结论，得到中国理论最优结构，并与实际财政支出结构进行对比分析。第五章在上章对比分析的基础上，提出了财政支出优化的建议。
[Abstract]:Keynesian theory proposed that the government in the short term in the case of insufficient aggregate demand, in order to prevent the economy from entering a downward cycle. The total demand can be expanded by means of fiscal revenue and expenditure in order to increase the output to smooth the economic fluctuation. Since the theory was put forward, the governments all over the world have carried on the practice. In 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States to endanger the global economy, in order to avoid the impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on the domestic economy, China took the initiative to implement a stimulative financial plan. The $4 tillion investment plan did avert a shock to the economy in the short term, but followed by rising inflation, soaring house prices and local government debt. The $4 tillion stimulus package has been embroiled in a heated debate about whether the stimulus will do more good than harm than good, and what the economy will look like if it doesn't intervene. Whether the government-led investment is inefficient and a waste of social and economic resources. Accordingly, in the 18 report of 2013, five years later, it is mentioned that "the relationship between government and market should be handled well, so that the market can play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and play a better role in government". This represents a major trend of economic development in the future, that is, the degree of economic marketization will become higher and higher, and the government function should be gradually tilted from the direction of economic management to the direction of public services. In such a large economic background, fiscal expenditure is a tool for the government to regulate and control the economy through fiscal policy, and a tool for providing public services to the public. How to adjust its structure to play a better role in promoting economic growth has become a problem worth studying. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter mainly describes the background, theoretical and practical significance of the research. The second chapter introduces the history and current situation of the research on fiscal expenditure and economic growth from the perspective of domestic and foreign. This paper introduces the research methods and conclusions of different scholars on this issue and makes a comparative analysis. Chapter three is based on the study of the changing trend of Chinese fiscal expenditure structure and the influence of fiscal expenditure on economic growth. This paper puts forward a theoretical model of economic growth including the structure of fiscal expenditure, and obtains the structure of fiscal expenditure which maximizes the steady growth rate of economy. Chapter 4th adopts total output and all kinds of fiscal expenditure. The multiple linear model of capital stock and labor force is established, and the marginal contribution of all kinds of fiscal expenditure to output is obtained by fitting the model according to the annual data of 1993-2005. According to the conclusion of the model in Chapter 3, the optimal structure of Chinese theory is obtained and compared with the actual structure of fiscal expenditure. Chapter 5th, based on the comparative analysis in the previous chapter, puts forward some suggestions for optimizing fiscal expenditure.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.1

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