基于压力测试的湖南省地方政府债务风险研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 07:12

本文关键词： 地方政府债务风险压力测试　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：虽然现行的《预算法》明确规定地方政府不得发行地方政府债券，但在现实中，各级地方政府仍然存在着各种形式的债务。近年来，地方政府债务在支持地方经济社会发展等方面发挥了积极作用，但随着地方政府债务规模的不断扩大，其在举借、使用、偿还和管理等方面都出现了一些不容忽视的问题，积累了一定的风险，这必将损害地方政府的执政能力、加大地方财政金融风险，对地方经济社会持续稳定发展非常不利。因此，从科学和长远发展的角度考虑，有必要充分了解地方政府债务风险，认识到加强地方政府性债务管理的重要性和紧迫性，切实加强地方政府债务日常管理，严格防范和化解财政金融风险。本文试图运用公共财政学、统计学、计量经济学等相关知识，构建我国地方政府债务风险压力测试框架，通过将每年新增债务额设定为当年地方投资需求与投资能力之差，进而对地方政府每年的债务存量和新增债务进行预测，在此基础上计算选取的如政府债务负担率、偿债率等地方政府债务风险压力测试指标在不同的情景设定下的数值，并与公认的警戒值进行比较，进而判断其债务风险状况。在此框架下，本文结合湖南省地方政府相关的财政与债务数据开展地方政府债务风险的动态实证分析，基于在不同的GDP增长率及不同的政府间事权格局的压力测试情景下，，对20132017年湖南省地方政府债务风险进行预测。实证分析结果显示，在设定不同压力测试情景下，预测年度的湖南省地方政府债务存在一定的风险，但总体来说风险是可控的。据此，文章提出了化解湖南省地方政府债务风险的政策建议，具体包括：转变经济发展方式，保证地方经济合理增长；完善现行财政体制，健全地方政府投融资体制；加强地方政府债务管理，构建债务风险预警和防范机制等。
[Abstract]:Although the current "Budget Law" clearly stipulates that local governments may not issue local government bonds, in reality, local governments at all levels still have various forms of debt. Local government debt has played an active role in supporting local economic and social development, but with the continuous expansion of local government debt, it is borrowing and using. There are some problems which can not be ignored in the aspects of repayment and management, and some risks have accumulated, which will surely damage the ruling ability of the local government and increase the local financial and financial risks. Therefore, from the perspective of scientific and long-term development, it is necessary to fully understand the local government debt risk. We should recognize the importance and urgency of strengthening the management of local government debt, strengthen the daily management of local government debt, and strictly guard against and resolve the financial and financial risks. This paper attempts to use the relevant knowledge of public finance, statistics, econometrics and other related knowledge to construct the risk testing framework of local government debt in China. By setting the amount of annual new debt as the difference between local investment demand and investment capacity, the annual debt stock and new debt of local governments are forecasted. On this basis, the selected local government debt risk stress test indicators such as government debt burden rate, debt service rate and other local government debt risk test indicators in different scenarios are calculated and compared with the recognized warning values. Then judge its debt risk situation. Under this framework, this paper carries out the dynamic empirical analysis of local government debt risk based on the local government financial and debt data of Hunan Province. Based on the different GDP growth rate and different intergovernmental power situation of the stress test scenarios, this paper forecasts the local government debt risk of Hunan province in 20132017. The empirical analysis results show that. Under different stress test scenarios, there is a certain risk in predicting the local government debt in Hunan province, but overall the risk is controllable. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to resolve the debt risk of local government in Hunan province, including: changing the mode of economic development to ensure the reasonable growth of local economy; Perfecting the current financial system and perfecting the investment and financing system of local governments; Strengthen local government debt management, build debt risk warning and prevention mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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