中国现阶段财政风险问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 01:24

本文选题：财政风险　切入点：财政风险评估　出处：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：财政风险,是世界各国财政运行和管理过程中所面临的迫切问题。2008年全球金融危机爆发后,为缓解经济增长下行压力,世界各国纷纷借助积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策进行宏观调控。但是,随之而来的是财政赤字与债务水平的攀升,原本分散的经济风险积聚成政府头上的财政风险乌云。欧债危机与美国的“财政悬崖”,都是财政风险不断累积带来的恶果。2014年,中国社会经济发展步入增长速度换挡期、结构调整阵痛期、前期刺激政策消化期的三期叠加的新常态。经济告别高速增长的同时,中国财政也步入了新常态,由过去两位数的高速增长,驶入了中低速增长的轨道。面对经济增长动力不足,中国政府积极推行减收增支的扩张性财政政策,发挥它们在稳增长、调结构方面的作用,财政收支矛盾更加凸显。不断累积的财政风险极有可能引发财政危机甚至经济危机,这就迫使我们不得不建立起对财政风险的评估和预警机制,以便实现对财政政策运行过程和实施效果的实时监控,进而及时发现并规避所面临的财政风险。如何才能实现对财政风险程度的评估,挖掘诱发财政风险问题的原因,提出实现中国财政可持续发展的财政治理与风险防范措施,守住财政风险不爆发的底线?本文按照理论研究、实证检验、因素分析、防范措施和对策建议的基本路径展开。在具体的研究路径选择中,将中国经济运行及与政府财政活动相关的财政政策、税收管理与预算体制、财政收支、政府债务等纳入中国财政风险形成的因素体系内,以考察它们对中国财政风险程度的“贡献率”。首先,利用理论研究、定性研究、规范研究,分析财政风险的起因、影响因素及其作用结果;其次,利用层次分析法,实现定性分析向定量研究的转换,把引发财政风险的因素指标化,并确定它们在财政风险形成中所占的权重;然后,在实证检验方面,本文既运用了概念性、表述性模型来进行理论铺垫,也对具体财政风险程度进行了计量评估,主要步骤是先利用理论分析和GARCH模型,确定各风险指标的风险区间,再对财政风险指标进行区间映射和权重确定,构建出适合中国经济发展模式和财政运行特点的非参数模型财政风险评估系统,然后计算各风险子系统的风险指数和财政风险的综合指数。最后,结合中国当前特殊的经济形势及实证分析结论,提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:Fiscal risk is an urgent problem in the process of financial operation and management in various countries around the world. In 2008, after the global financial crisis broke out, in order to alleviate the downward pressure on economic growth, Countries all over the world have taken advantage of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to carry out macro-control. However, with the increase of fiscal deficits and debt levels, The originally dispersed economic risks accumulated into a dark cloud of fiscal risks on the top of the government. The European debt crisis and the "fiscal cliff" in the United States were both the result of the continuous accumulation of fiscal risks. In 2014, China's social and economic development entered a period of shifting growth rates. Structural adjustment and labor pains, the new normal superimposed by the three phases of the previous period of stimulus policy digestion. As the economy bid farewell to rapid growth, China's finance has also entered the new normal, with rapid growth in the past two digits. The Chinese government has actively pursued an expansionary fiscal policy of reducing revenues and increasing expenditure, giving play to their role in stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure. The contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is even more prominent. The accumulated fiscal risks are likely to lead to financial crisis or even economic crisis, which forces us to establish an assessment and early warning mechanism for fiscal risks. In order to realize the real-time monitoring of the process and effect of fiscal policy, and then to discover and avoid the financial risk in time, how to realize the evaluation of the degree of financial risk, and how to excavate the causes of the financial risk problem, Put forward the financial governance and risk prevention measures to realize the sustainable development of Chinese finance, and keep the bottom line of the financial risk not to break out? This paper is based on the basic path of theoretical research, empirical test, factor analysis, preventive measures and countermeasures and suggestions. In the course of specific research path selection, this paper introduces the economic operation of China and the fiscal policies related to the government's financial activities. Tax management and budget system, fiscal revenue and expenditure, government debt and so on are included in the factor system of China's fiscal risk formation, in order to investigate their "contribution rate" to the degree of financial risk in China. The causes, influencing factors and their effects of financial risks are analyzed. Secondly, the qualitative analysis is transformed into quantitative research by AHP, and the factors that lead to financial risks are indexed. And determine their weight in the formation of financial risk; then, in the empirical test, this paper not only uses conceptual and expressive models to lay the groundwork for the theory, but also carries on the quantitative evaluation to the specific financial risk degree. The main step is to first use theoretical analysis and GARCH model to determine the risk interval of each risk index, and then to determine the financial risk index interval mapping and weight determination. A non-parametric model fiscal risk assessment system suitable for China's economic development model and financial operation characteristics is constructed, and then the risk index of each risk subsystem and the comprehensive index of financial risk are calculated. Combined with China's special economic situation and empirical analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812

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