城投债信用风险评估体系的方案设计

发布时间：2018-05-03 08:22

本文选题：城投债 + 信用风险评估　；参考：《湖南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的加速发展,我国地方政府的支出压力越来越大,地方政府的支出已经远远超过了其税收。同时,我国《预算法》已有明确规定,“除法律和国务院另有规定外,地方政府不得发行地方政府债券”。在这样的经济环境下,通过城投类公司平台进行融资成为了制度约束下的大多数政府的选择,城投类企业债券应运而生。近些年来,城投类企业债已经成为了我国企业债券的重要投资品种,其发行量占据着企业债券发行总量的半壁江山。既然城投类债券作为一种投资产品,投资者关注的自然是投资品本身的信用风险能否得到合理披露以及自身的利益能否得到合法的保护。因此,研究出一套有效的城投债信用风险的内部评级系统无论是对于中国城投债评级体系的完善还是对于城投类企业债券投资者的利益保护,都具有重要的意义。本文采用了国内外比较分析法、定性与定量分析相结合法、案例分析法等方法。在对我国城投债的含义和发展现状进行概括的基础上归纳出我国城投债的特性。接着在借鉴国际信用评估方法的基础上,结合国内评级环境的自身特点,尝试构建了适用国内的信用风险评估方案。为了建立一个合理的信用评估体系,本文对影响城投债信用风险的各个因素进行了全面分析,并设计出城投债信用风险评估指标体系的模型。在对具体指标的赋权方面,本文利用层次分析法(简称“AHP法”)设置出评估体系的指标权重。在实地调研和数据搜集的基础上,本文以长沙市雨花区某城投公司为例进行了实证分析,检验了模型的评估效果,以证明本文设计的方案具有可操作性。根据对城投债信用风险的研究,文章最后分别从国家和政府的层面、城投公司自身的层面以及制度层面这三个方面提出了控制城投债信用风险的一系列建议措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the pressure of local government expenditure is increasing, and the expenditure of local government has far exceeded its tax revenue. At the same time, the Budget Law of our country has clearly stipulated that "unless otherwise stipulated by the law and the State Council, local governments may not issue local government bonds." In such an economic environment, financing through the city investment company platform has become the choice of most governments under the system constraints, and the municipal investment enterprise bonds emerge as the times require. In recent years, urban investment enterprise bonds have become an important investment variety of corporate bonds in China, and their issuance volume accounts for half of the total issuance of corporate bonds. As a kind of investment product, investors naturally focus on whether the credit risk of the investment products can be disclosed reasonably and whether their own interests can be legally protected. Therefore, it is of great significance to develop an effective internal rating system for the credit risk of city investment debt, both for the perfection of the rating system of China capital investment and for the protection of the interests of corporate bond investors. This paper adopts comparative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, case analysis and so on. On the basis of summarizing the meaning and present situation of the city investment debt in our country, the characteristics of the city investment debt in our country are summed up. Then, based on the international credit evaluation method and the characteristics of domestic rating environment, this paper tries to construct a suitable domestic credit risk assessment scheme. In order to establish a reasonable credit evaluation system, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the factors that affect the credit risk of city investment debt, and designs a model of the credit risk evaluation index system of city investment debt. In the aspect of the weighting of specific indicators, this paper sets the index weight of the evaluation system by using the Analytic hierarchy process (referred to as "AHP method"). On the basis of field investigation and data collection, this paper takes a city investment company in Yuhua District of Changsha City as an example to analyze the evaluation effect of the model and prove that the scheme designed in this paper is operable. According to the research on the credit risk of city investment debt, the paper puts forward a series of suggestion measures to control the credit risk of city investment debt from the aspects of the state and the government, the level of the city investment company itself and the system level.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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