我国地方政府债务风险及预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 07:27

本文选题：地方政府债务风险 + 风险预警　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年爆发的金融危机通过多种途径蔓延至我国,对我国的经济增长产生了巨大的负面影响。为了应对此次金融危机带来的冲击,我国政府宣布实施四万亿刺激经济计划。该计划一经宣布,各地方政府马上开始进行大量基础设施建设投资,实际的投资量远远超过了四万亿元。但是,现阶段我国地方政府本身收入来源有限,又不能公开发行债券向社会融资,只能采取变通手段,成立融资平台公司向银行借款。表面上看,虽然地方财政的预算状况良好,实际上却逐渐积累了大量的债务风险。渐渐地,地方政府债务风险问题在当前经济体制改革中变得突出起来,也引起了社会各界的广泛关注。既然地方政府债务问题在我国已无法避免,而且规模巨大、已形成风险,与其遮遮掩掩,不如公开面对、予以规范、加强管理。为防范和化解风险隐患,确保经济金融平稳运行,必须加强地方政府债务管理,那么如何预警风险就显得尤为迫切。在这种情况下,本文选择地方政府债务风险预警体系进行研究,希望能有助于风险预警,并采取相应对策以防范风险。本文首先在厘清相关概念的基础上,将国内外学者关于政府债务管理的文献进行了综述。在西方国家,由于普遍允许地方政府发行市政债券,因此国外学者对于政府债务的研究较多的集中在国家层面,对于国家主权债务的研究较多,对地方政府债务的具体分析较少。而我国地方政府债务的发展相对滞后,由于长期受到《预算法》的管制,地方政府纷纷采取变通的手段获取银行贷款。这导致了地方政府的隐性债务激增,蕴藏了大量的风险。近年来,我国学者开始逐渐重视对地方债务风险的研究,并形成了一定的研究成果。然而,在对地方政府债务的研究中定性分析占大多数,通过建立预警模型进行实证分析的研究较少。其次,本文系统性地论述了地方政府债务风险预警的理论基础。地方政府债务风险预警就是将地方政府债务的定性认识和定量研究相结合,利用现代化工具和各种技术手段,收集各类与债务风险相关的政府经济活动数据,构建评估地方政府债务风险的指标体系,并建立地方政府债务风险预警模型,从而评估预警地方政府债务风险程度,最终为各级政府监控地方政府债务运行和制定化解风险对策提供科学依据。风险预警一般包括风险识别、风险评估、风险判断三个阶段。结合实际情况,本文采取数据分析法对地方政府债务进行了风险识别,使用判别分析法作为经济预警的方法进行实证分析,构建出地方政府债务风险预警系统。本文的第三部分对我国地方政府债务的发展现状进行了分析。我国地方政府债务发行经历了法律严厉禁止、中央财政部代发、地方直接发行试点三个阶段。随着经济体制改革的进一步发展,地方政府直接发行市政债券的趋势愈来愈明朗。.目前,我国地方政府债务表现出债务规模巨大、市级政府为主要举债人、融资平台为主要举债主体、银行贷款为主要资金来源、市政建设为主要投向、未来两年还款压力大等特征,这些特征的出现应该得到重视。随后,本文在第四部分通过对比2010年及2013年我国地方政府债务的相关数据,对地方政府债务进行了风险识别。我国现阶段地方政府债务风险主要表现为规模风险、结构风险、政府收支风险及宏观经济风险四个方面。本文认为,上述风险出现的主要原因在四个方面,一是财政体制改革的滞后,二是行政激励制度的扭曲,三是债务管理体制的落后,四是宏观调控政策的失效。本文第五部分构建出地方政府债务的风险预警模型。首先,利用全国30个省市地方政府债务的数据建立相关的指标体系,运用SPSS软件进行聚类分析,归纳出四个影响地方政府债务风险的公共因子,即债务规模风险因子、债务结构风险因子、政府收支风险因子及宏观经济风险因子。然后,通过因子分析,得出每个省市的风险得分。最后,本文结合具体风险指标的临界值构造不同程度的风险区间,判断出目前每个省市政府债务的风险水平。最后,针对我国地方政府债务风险的现状及成因,本文提出了三条防范地方政府债务风险的建议。一为通过合理划分财权事权、提高地方政府收入、规范转移支付制度及提高财政透明度等措施,完善现有财政体制。二为通过允许更多地方政府举债、改革地方政绩考核体制来加快行政体制改革,规范地方政府行为。三为建立包括事前决策、事中执行、事后监管的地方债务管理体系,实现债务的有效管理。具体措施包括,设置专门的政府债务管理机构,健全地方政府债务的借用机制,提高债务资金的使用效率,设立地方政府偿债基金,完善债务信息披露制度,建立地方政府债务的内外部监管体系,构建地方政府债务风险预警体系等。本文的创新之处主要体现在以下几方面： 1、研究对象和视角的独特性。目前围绕地方政府债务风险研究很多,但主要是围绕地方政府债务风险的内涵、特征、现状描述、形成机理,以及如何防范和化解地方政府债务风险。其实,目前国内对地方政府债务存在风险已达成共识,防范和化解地方政府债务风险关键问题在于风险如何度量、评估以及预警。本文选择地方政府债务风险预警进行研究,具有一定的理论和现实意义。 2、从地方政府双重主体角度分析地方政府债务风险。地方政府作为公共主体,主要运用财政融资,债务风险主要来自于财政收不抵支形成的赤字以及市场经济转轨带来的大量或有、隐性债务；在财政融资无法保证政府公共职能履行情况下,寻求金融手段融资。而地方政府作为经济主体,主要运用金融手段融资,目前在法律不允许地方发债情况下,地方政府直接、间接向金融机构贷款,采用土地融资、发行企业债券、推行信托计划等多种变通融资方式,由此形成债务风险。 3、建立地方政府债务风险预警理论框架。我国学术界对地方政府债务风险预警的研究尚处于起步阶段,评估预警理论、方法、指标体系、评判标准尚未成熟,而预警指标普遍存在指标设计不科学不全面。本文从总体层面和项目层面分别分析探讨了地方政府债务风险预警体系内涵、预警目标、预警程序、预警方法,并定性构建了相对完善的地方政府债务风险预警指标体系。 4、建立地方政府债务风险预警模型。本文利用国家审计署发布的地方政府债务审计报告相关权威数据,以30个省市为样本,在定性指标体系基础上,运用聚类分析法建立实际有效的指标体系,通过因子分析法,找出预警指标4个公共因子。运用因子得分法,得到公共因子以及风险临界值的得分,在此基础上构建地方政府债务风险预警模型,对2013年全国30个省市地方政府债务风险进行预警。 5、提出地方政府债务风险预警的制度建设。目前由于体制的原因,政府动力不足,所以,将监控和预警付诸于实践并且法制化还远不能做到,地方政府债务管理意识还没有真正树立起来,防御、降低债务风险必须有相关制度建设配合。为此,本文提出了一系列制度建设建议。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan . In order to deal with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan .

Since the local government debt problem can not be avoided in our country , and the scale is huge , the risk is formed , and it is hidden from it , it is better to face , regulate and strengthen the management . In order to prevent and resolve the hidden danger of risk and ensure the smooth operation of the local government , how to alert the risk is especially urgent . In this case , this paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning system to carry on the research , hoping to help the risk early warning , and take the corresponding countermeasure to guard against the risk .

In recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk , and have formed some research results . However , in the study of local government debt , the research of empirical analysis is less .

Secondly , this paper systematically discusses the theory foundation of the local government debt risk early warning . The local government debt risk early warning is to combine the qualitative and quantitative research of local government debt , collect various government economic activity data related to the debt risk , build the index system of local government debt risk , and establish the local government debt risk early warning model .

The third part of this paper analyzes the present situation of local government debt in our country . The local government debt issuance has experienced three stages of the severe prohibition of the law , the substitution of the Central Treasury Department and the local direct distribution pilot . With the further development of the economic system reform , the tendency of the local government to issue the municipal bonds becomes more and more clear . At present , the local government debt of our country shows the huge debt scale , the municipal government is the main debt burden person , the financing platform is the main debt main body , the bank loan is the main source of funds , the municipal construction is the main investment , the next two years repayment pressure is big and so on , these characteristics should be paid attention .

Then , in the fourth part , by comparing the relevant data of local government debt in China in 2010 and 2013 , the risk identification of local government debt is carried out . At present , the risk of local government debt is mainly represented as scale risk , structural risk , government revenue and expenditure risk and macro - economic risk .

The fifth part of this paper constructs the risk pre - warning model of local government debt . First , using the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in the country to set up the relevant index system , the public factors influencing the debt risk of local government , namely the debt scale risk factor , the debt structure risk factor , the government revenue and expenditure risk factor and the macro - economic risk factor , are analyzed by SPSS software . Finally , according to the factor analysis , the risk score of each province is obtained . Finally , this paper constructs the risk interval of different degree according to the critical value of the specific risk index , and determines the risk level of the debt of each provincial government .

Finally , aiming at the present situation and cause of local government debt risk in our country , this paper puts forward three suggestions to prevent local government debt risk . First , to improve the existing fiscal system by rationally dividing the right of property right , improving local government revenue , standardizing transfer payment system and improving financial transparency .

The innovations of this article are mainly embodied in the following aspects :

1 . The research object and the uniqueness of the angle of view . At present , there are many researches around the local government debt risk , but mainly about the connotation , characteristics , current situation description and formation mechanism of local government debt risk , how to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk . In fact , there is a consensus on the risk of local government debt , and how to prevent and resolve the key problem of local government debt risk is how to measure , evaluate and early warning . This paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning to carry out the research , and has certain theoretical and practical significance .

2 . The local government debt risk is analyzed from the perspective of the local government . Local governments , as the public subjects , mainly use financial financing . The debt risk mainly comes from the deficit formed by the fiscal revenue and the large amount of contingent liabilities caused by the transition of the market economy ;
The local government , as the main body of economy , mainly uses financial means to finance . At present , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution under the condition that the law does not allow the local government to repay the debt , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution , adopts various kinds of alternative financing methods , such as land financing , issuing corporate bonds and implementing the trust scheme , thereby forming the debt risk .

3 . Establish the theoretical framework of local government debt risk early warning . The research on the early warning of local government debt risk is still in the initial stage , and the evaluation early - warning theory , method , index system and evaluation criterion are not mature . The paper analyzes the connotation , early warning target , early warning procedure and early warning method of local government debt risk early warning system from the overall level and the project level , and qualitatively constructs the relatively perfect early warning index system of local government debt risk .

4 . Establish the local government debt risk pre - warning model . Based on the qualitative index system , the paper uses cluster analysis method to establish the effective index system based on the authoritative data of the local government debt audit report issued by the National Audit Office . By means of factor analysis method , we find out the four common factors of the early warning index . By using the factor score method , we get the score of the public factor and the critical value , and then build the local government debt risk pre - warning model , and forewarn the local government debt risk in 30 provinces and cities in 2013 .

5 . Put forward the system construction of the local government debt risk early warning . At present , because of the reasons of the system , the government power is insufficient , so the monitoring and early warning is put into practice and the legalization is far from being done , the local government debt management consciousness has not really set up , the defense , the debt risk must have the relevant system construction cooperation . To this end , this paper puts forward a series of system construction suggestions .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

【参考文献】