“营改增”对地方财政收入影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-23 20:16

本文选题：“营改增” + 地方财政收入　；参考：《内蒙古财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：营业税改为增值税是我国这几年税制改革的重头戏,2016年5月1日起“营改增”全面推开。这是改革开放以来最大规模的减税改革,对产业结构调整、经济增长方式转变、政府间财政关系重构均有重要影响。然而,我们在看到“营改增”好处的同时,还要看到,“营改增”之后,地方财政面临的困局。“营改增”政策的实施在于动摇了地方的税收体制,使得地方原有的主体税种丧失,打破了地方原有的财政支撑体系,造成了中央和地方财权与事权的博弈。各级地方税收体制是保障地方财政收入维持平衡的基石,同时也是各级地方依法履行行政职能的根本所在,“营改增”的全面实施造成了地方税收体制中最大的主体税营业税的不复存在,地方财政收入的最大来源没有了,对地方财政收入产生了深刻的影响。由此可见,关注“营改增”对地方财政收入的影响与完善地方税收体系成为我国财税改革中的重要部分。本论文首先介绍了全文基本概况,包括论文意义、文献综述、研究框架、方法以及论文的创新和不足;其次论述地方财力构建的相关理论,从“营改增”对地方财政影响的理论渊源着手,基于财政分权视角作为理论支撑;然后进行“营改增”经济效应的理论分析,通过分析“营改增”对产业结构调整、对经济增长影响进而分析其对财政收入效应的影响,为后面的实证分析奠定理论基础。接下来是文章的实证部分:首先,运用ADF模型证明“营改增”对地方经济增长的影响,证明“营改增”会促进地方经济的增长。其次,运用我国现行中央与地方增值税税收收入划分政策测算出“营改增”对地方财政收入短期影响。在此分析基础上得出,按照过渡期增值税分配政策有些省份的财政收入增加,有些省份的财政收入减少,这种财政收入的不确定性受到地方税收结构的影响。研究结果显示,营业税占两税比重越高的省份,新方案下损失越大,税收返还比例越高。考虑到我国现行“营改增”税率档次和中央与地方就增值税的比例都存在着较大的弊病,文章进行了合理测试与估算,并得出了适合我国经济发展水平的税率档次和中央与地方就增值税的分享比例。接下来,通过运用《2012年中国地区投入产出表》、《2013年中国统计年鉴》、《2013年中国税务年鉴》以2012年为基期对个指标进项修正和调整,模拟测算出“营改增”对地方财政的长期影响,并分析了“营改增”前后地方财政收入基本稳定前提下存在的差异,得出“营改增”或许不利于经济发展水平较低省份的发展。并在此基础上提出完善我国地方财政收入体系的结论:合理调整中央与地方的分享比例,适时减少税率档次,重构地方主体税种。
[Abstract]:The change from business tax to value-added tax is the most important part of tax system reform in China in recent years, and it has been fully promoted since May 1, 2016. This is the largest tax reduction reform since the reform and opening up, which has an important impact on the adjustment of industrial structure, the transformation of the mode of economic growth, and the reconstruction of fiscal relations between governments. However, while we see the benefits of the "battalion reform and increase", we must also see the difficulties faced by local finance after the "battalion reform and increase". The implementation of the policy of "business reform and increase" lies in shaking the local tax system, making the main tax categories of the local government lose, breaking the original financial support system of the local government, and resulting in the game between the central and local financial power and the administrative power. The local tax system at all levels is the cornerstone of maintaining the balance of local fiscal revenues, and is also the fundamental place for local governments to perform their administrative functions in accordance with the law. The comprehensive implementation of "business reform and increase" has resulted in the absence of the largest principal tax and business tax in the local tax system, and the absence of the largest source of local fiscal revenue, which has had a profound impact on the local fiscal revenue. It can be seen that paying attention to the influence of "business reform and increase" on local fiscal revenue and perfecting local tax system have become an important part of our country's fiscal and taxation reform. This paper first introduces the basic overview of the full text, including the significance of the paper, literature review, research framework, methods and the innovation and shortcomings of the paper, and then discusses the relevant theories of the construction of local financial resources. Starting from the theoretical origin of the influence of "business reform and increase" on local finance, and based on the perspective of fiscal decentralization as theoretical support, and then the theoretical analysis of the economic effect of "business reform and increase", the paper analyzes the adjustment of industrial structure by "business reform and increase". The influence of economic growth on fiscal revenue is analyzed, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later empirical analysis. The next part is the empirical part of the article: firstly, the ADF model is used to prove the influence of "camp reform and increase" on local economic growth, and to prove that "business reform and increase" will promote the local economic growth. Secondly, the author calculates the short-term influence of "business reform and increase" on the local fiscal revenue by using the current policy of dividing the revenue of value-added tax between the central and local governments. On the basis of this analysis, it is concluded that according to the distribution policy of transitional value added tax, some provinces' fiscal revenue increases and some provinces' fiscal revenue decreases. The uncertainty of this kind of fiscal revenue is affected by the local tax structure. The results show that the higher the ratio of business tax to the two taxes, the greater the loss under the new scheme, and the higher the proportion of tax return. Considering that there are some disadvantages in the current tax level of "business reform and increase" in our country and in the proportion of value-added tax between the central and local governments, the article has carried out reasonable tests and estimates. The tax level suitable for the economic development of our country and the share ratio of VAT between the central government and the local government are obtained. Then, by using the "China Regional Input-Output Table 2012", the "China Statistical Yearbook of 2013" and the "2013 China tax Yearbook" to revise and adjust the index input in the 2012 base period, the long-term impact of "camp reform and increase" on local finance is simulated and calculated. The differences of local fiscal revenue before and after "camp reform and increase" are analyzed, and the conclusion is drawn that "camp reform and increase" may be harmful to the development of provinces with lower economic development level. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the conclusion of perfecting the local fiscal revenue system of our country: rationally adjusting the share ratio between central and local governments, reducing the tax rate level in time, and reconstructing the local main tax categories.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.41;F812.42

【参考文献】