福建省财政支出与居民消费的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 03:27

本文选题：财政支出规模 + 财政支出结构　；参考：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,对经济增长具有重要的作用。通过促进消费,尤其是居民消费,有助于加快经济增长方式的转变,实现经济的可持续发展。福建省作为海峡西岸经济区建设的主体,正面临着居民消费不足的问题,应着力提高居民消费水平,转变经济增长方式。财政支出作为政府宏观调控的重要手段,能够对居民消费产生重要影响。而国内外学者对财政支出与居民消费关系一直未形成统一的研究结论,研究对象又多以全国为主,没有考虑到各省市的财政支出存在较大差异,其研究结论不能为各省市的财政支出优化提供有效的建议。所以,本文以福建省为研究对象,分析福建省财政支出与居民消费的关系。文章从财政支出和居民消费的相关理论入手,分析了财政支出变化的原因和居民消费的影响因素,并从理论层面分析了财政支出对居民消费挤入和挤出效应的作用机制。接着,根据财政支出理论和居民消费理论,对福建省的财政支出规模和结构、居民消费水平和结构进行深入分析,找出福建省财政支出存在的问题和把握福建省城乡居民消费需求的变化趋势。之后,基于对福建省各项财政支出与居民消费关系的预测,将财政支出划分为两类,对居民消费具有挤入效应的财政支出为第Ⅰ类财政支出,对居民消费具有挤出效应的财政支出为第Ⅱ类财政支出。然后,通过可变参数模型和递归方法对福建省财政支出与城乡居民消费的关系进行量化分析,验证财政支出结构与城乡居民消费关系的预测。研究结果表明,2000-2012年,财政支出规模、第Ⅰ类财政支出、第Ⅱ类财政支出对居民消费均具有挤入效应,其中,以第Ⅰ类财政支出的挤入效应最大；1992-2012年,财政支出规模、第Ⅰ类财政支出、第Ⅱ类财政支出对城镇居民消费均具有挤入效应,其中,以财政支出规模的挤入效应最大,第Ⅰ类财政支出次之；2000-2012年,财政支出规模、第Ⅰ类财政支出、第Ⅱ类财政支出对农村居民消费均具有挤入效应,其中,2000-2008年,以第Ⅰ类财政支出的挤入效应最大,2010-2012年,以第Ⅱ类财政支出的挤入效应最大。所以,通过加大福建省财政支出规模、提高第Ⅰ类财政支出占财政支出的比重、优化第Ⅰ类财政支出和第Ⅱ类财政支出的结构、提高财政支出效率,能够极大地提高福建省城乡居民的消费支出水平,解决居民消费不足的问题,同时,提高居民消费对经济增长的贡献率,实现福建省经济增长方式的转变和经济的可持续发展,对加快海峡西岸经济区建设具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Consumption, as one of the troika driving economic growth, plays an important role in economic growth. By promoting consumption, especially residents' consumption, it is helpful to accelerate the transformation of economic growth mode and realize the sustainable development of economy. Fujian Province, as the main body of the construction of the economic zone on the west side of the Straits, is facing the problem of insufficient consumption of residents, so we should focus on improving the consumption level of residents and changing the mode of economic growth. As an important means of government macro-control, fiscal expenditure can have an important impact on residents' consumption. However, scholars at home and abroad have not formed a unified research conclusion on the relationship between fiscal expenditure and consumption of residents, and the research objects are mostly national, without taking into account the great differences in the financial expenditure of various provinces and cities. The conclusion of the study can not provide effective suggestions for the optimization of fiscal expenditure in various provinces and cities. Therefore, this article takes Fujian Province as the research object, analyzes the Fujian Province financial expenditure and the resident consumption relations. Based on the related theories of financial expenditure and resident consumption, this paper analyzes the reasons of the change of fiscal expenditure and the influencing factors of resident consumption, and analyzes the mechanism of the effect of fiscal expenditure on the crowding in and crowding out of residents' consumption from the theoretical level. Then, according to the fiscal expenditure theory and the resident consumption theory, the scale and structure of the fiscal expenditure, the consumption level and the structure of the residents in Fujian Province are analyzed. Find out the problems existing in the fiscal expenditure of Fujian Province and grasp the changing trend of consumption demand of urban and rural residents in Fujian Province. Then, based on the forecast of the relationship between the fiscal expenditure and residents' consumption in Fujian Province, the fiscal expenditure is divided into two categories, and the financial expenditure with crowding effect on residents' consumption is the first kind of fiscal expenditure. The expenditure which has crowding out effect to the resident consumption is the second kind of financial expenditure. Then, the relationship between financial expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption in Fujian Province is analyzed quantitatively by using variable parameter model and recursive method to verify the prediction of the relationship between the structure of fiscal expenditure and the consumption of urban and rural residents. The results show that from 2000 to 2012, the scale of fiscal expenditure, the first type of fiscal expenditure and the second type of fiscal expenditure have crowding effect on residents' consumption. Among them, the crowding effect of the first type of fiscal expenditure is the largest, and the scale of fiscal expenditure from 1992 to 2012. The first kind of fiscal expenditure, the second kind of fiscal expenditure has crowding effect on the consumption of urban residents, among which, the crowding effect of the scale of fiscal expenditure is the largest, the first type of fiscal expenditure is next, the scale of fiscal expenditure is 2000-2012, the scale of fiscal expenditure of the first type, the first kind of fiscal expenditure. The second kind of fiscal expenditure has the crowding effect on rural residents' consumption. In 2000-2008, the crowding effect of the first kind of fiscal expenditure is the biggest, and the second type of financial expenditure is the biggest. Therefore, by increasing the scale of fiscal expenditure in Fujian Province, increasing the proportion of the first kind of fiscal expenditure to the fiscal expenditure, optimizing the structure of the first type fiscal expenditure and the second type fiscal expenditure, improving the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, It can greatly improve the level of consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in Fujian Province, solve the problem of insufficient consumption of residents, at the same time, increase the contribution rate of residents' consumption to economic growth, and realize the transformation of economic growth mode and the sustainable development of economy in Fujian Province. It is of great significance to accelerate the construction of the economic zone on the west side of the Straits.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;F126.1

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