河南省财政收入与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 03:54

本文选题：财政收入 + 经济增长　；参考：《河南财经政法大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：1994年以后,中国经济的整体水平出现了大幅度的增长,地方经济发展和财政收入水平也都进入了一个快速增长时期。1994年,河南省的财政收入为171.38亿元,到了2015年河南省的财政收入为4428.1亿元,22年间,河南省的财政收入增长近26倍;1994年,河南省地区生产总值为2216.83亿元,而2015年,河南省地区生产总值为37002.16亿元。可以看出,河南省的地区生产总值和财政收入的水平都有了大幅度的提高。河南省作为中原崛起的核心省份,其经济发展水平对全国和中原崛起都有重大影响,本文的关注点在于河南省这个地区的财政收入和经济增长之间的关系。本文首先利用河南省1994-2015年的数据,根据衡量财政收入与经济增长关系的三大指标对河南省财政收入和经济增长的关系进行描述性统计分析,发现河南省的财政收入与经济增长之间存在显著关系,并且财政收入的增速普遍高于经济增长的增速。从产业结构的角度,第一产业的生产总值占河南省GDP比重高于全国平均水平,而河南省第三产业生产总值的水平低于全国平均水平10个百分点。其次,为了更加深入对二者关系进行分析,利用河南省1994-2015年之间的财政收入与GDP的数据,运用实证分析的方法对财政收入和经济增长的关系进行研究。本文主要运用了协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验等方法对此进行了实证研究。通过实证发现:河南省的财政收入与经济增长之间不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而河南省的财政收入与经济增长和滞后一期的财政收入,三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;短期内,河南省的经济增长和滞后一期的财政收入每增加1%,财政收入就会分别增加0.729%和0.405%,当经济的短期波动偏离了经济的长期均衡时,就会以-0.98929的调整力度将经济的非均衡状态拉回到均衡的状态;根据格兰杰因果检验发现,河南省滞后一期的财政收入不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而滞后一期的经济增长是财政收入的格兰杰原因。
[Abstract]:Since 1994, the overall level of China's economy has increased by a large margin, and local economic development and fiscal revenue have also entered a period of rapid growth. In 1994, Henan Province's fiscal revenue was 17.138 billion yuan. By 2015, the fiscal revenue of Henan Province was 442.81 billion yuan and 22 years, the revenue of Henan Province increased by nearly 26 times, in 1994, the gross domestic product of Henan province was 221.683 billion yuan, and in 2015, the regional GDP of Henan Province was 3.700216 trillion yuan. As can be seen, Henan Province's regional gross domestic product and the level of fiscal revenue have greatly improved. As the core province of the Central Plains, the economic development level of Henan Province has great influence on the rise of the whole country and the Central Plains. The focus of this paper is on the relationship between the fiscal revenue and economic growth in this region of Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province from 1994 to 2015, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth according to the three indexes of measuring the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth. It is found that there is a significant relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth in Henan Province, and the growth rate of fiscal revenue is generally higher than that of economic growth. From the point of view of industrial structure, the proportion of primary industry GDP to GDP in Henan Province is higher than the national average, while the level of tertiary industry GDP in Henan Province is 10 percentage points lower than the national average level. Secondly, in order to further analyze the relationship between the two, using the data of fiscal revenue and GDP from 1994 to 2015 in Henan Province, using the method of empirical analysis to study the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth. Cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test are mainly used in this paper. The empirical results show that there is no long-term stable equilibrium relationship between financial revenue and economic growth in Henan Province, while there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth and lagging fiscal revenue in Henan Province. In the short term, for every increase in economic growth in Henan Province and the increase in fiscal revenue in the lagging period, the fiscal revenue will increase by 0.729% and 0.405% respectively. When the short-term fluctuations of the economy deviate from the long-term equilibrium of the economy, It will pull the unbalanced state of the economy back to the equilibrium state with a readjustment of -0.98929. According to the Granger causality test, it is found that the fiscal revenue of Henan Province that lags behind in the first period is not the Granger cause of economic growth. And the economic growth that lags one period is the Granger reason of financial revenue.
【学位授予单位】：河南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F812.41;F127

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