关税下降、进口贸易与财政收入效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 06:53

本文选题：关税 + 进口贸易　；参考：《财政研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：随着经济全球化进程的深入,国际贸易竞争不断加剧,降低关税一般被认为是促进一国国际贸易,尤其是进口贸易发展的有效手段,但降低关税往往会受到政府财政收入能力的约束。本文在理论分析关税变动的财政收入效应基础上,基于GTAP第9版最新数据库模拟我国关税下降方案中的一种情况(即将我国进口关税平均水平降低至OECD国家平均关税水平),结果显示:(1)能够促进我国进口贸易,同时也能增加全球出口贸易活动。(2)对我国财政收入产生正向影响但这种影响作用十分小,其中初级产品以及最终产品税收收入是负向影响。(3)对采掘业、纺织业、轻工业与重工业的税收收入影响均为正向。(4)能增加实际产出,提高本国与全球社会福利水平。因此本文建议可以先降低轻工业、重工业等产业的关税税率,然后再逐步降低其他行业关税水平,弱化关税的财政收入职能,以适应经济新常态下的全球发展趋势。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, international trade competition is becoming more and more intense. Lowering tariffs is generally considered to be an effective means to promote the development of a country's international trade, especially import trade. But lowering tariffs is often constrained by the government's ability to generate revenue. Based on the theoretical analysis of the fiscal revenue effects of tariff changes, Based on the latest database of GTAP version 9, we simulate a situation in China's tariff reduction scheme (that is, reducing the average import tariff level of China to the average tariff level of OECD countries), and the results show that China's import trade can be promoted by 1: 1. At the same time, it can also increase the global export trade activity.) it has a positive impact on China's fiscal revenue, but this effect is very small. Among them, the primary products and the final product tax revenues have a negative impact on the extractive industry and the textile industry. The impact of tax revenue on light industry and heavy industry is both positive. 4) it can increase real output and raise the level of social welfare both at home and around the world. Therefore, this paper suggests that the tariff rate of light industry and heavy industry should be reduced first, then the tariff level of other industries should be lowered step by step, and the function of fiscal revenue of tariff should be weakened in order to adapt to the global development trend under the new normal state of economy.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学财政税务学院;国家信息中心经济预测部;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“增值税制度效应的经济学分析”(15FJY001)的资助
【分类号】：F752.5;F752.61;F812.41

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