地方政府债务性规模影响因素的实证研究——来自安徽省的经验证据

发布时间：2018-06-20 18:32

本文选题：地方政府性债务 + 债务规模　；参考：《华东经济管理》2017年04期

【摘要】：财政分权体制下,"财权与事权不对称"引发地方政府性债务规模的迅速扩大,使得地方政府性债务风险日益凸显,亟须探究地方政府性债务规模的影响因素。文章在明晰地方政府性债务本质内涵的基础上,构建了地方政府性债务形成机理的理论分析框架,从理论上阐释了影响我国地方政府性债务规模的关键因素。利用安徽省2000-2015年的统计数据,对地方政府性债务规模的影响因素进行实证检验。实证结果表明,中央政府财政集权程度、户籍登记人口数、低收入人口占比、失业率均对安徽省政府性债务规模产生正向影响,而人均年可支配所得对安徽省政府性债务规模产生负向影响。研究结论为地方政府性债务风险的防控提供了决策依据。
[Abstract]:Under the system of fiscal decentralization, "asymmetry of financial power and administrative power" leads to the rapid expansion of the scale of local government debt, which makes the risk of local government debt increasingly prominent. It is urgent to explore the influence factors of the scale of local government debt. On the basis of clarifying the essential connotation of local government debt, this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the formation mechanism of local government debt, and theoretically explains the key factors that affect the scale of local government debt in China. Based on the statistical data of Anhui Province from 2000 to 2015, the factors influencing the scale of local government debt are empirically tested. The empirical results show that the degree of fiscal centralization of central government, the number of registered residents, the proportion of low-income population, the unemployment rate all have a positive impact on the debt scale of Anhui Provincial Government. And the per capita annual disposable income has a negative impact on the debt scale of Anhui provincial government. The conclusion provides the decision basis for the prevention and control of local government debt risk.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学管理学院;合肥工业大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71302063) 安徽省自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(1408085QG143)
【分类号】：F812.5

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