基于突变级数法的财政脆弱性指数研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 03:41

  本文选题：财政 + 脆弱性　； 参考：《人民论坛·学术前沿》2017年16期

【摘要】：本文采用突变级数法、熵值法等构建我国财政脆弱性评价指标体系,研究我国财政脆弱性,分析脆弱性的影响因素。结果表明:2002~2004年、2008年、2010~2014年我国财政脆弱性程度较往年升高。虽然2010年至2014年间的脆弱性指数数值较往年处于较高水平,但总体呈现下降态势,说明近年来我国财政脆弱性状况正在逐渐改善;财政脆弱性同时受到内部和外部因素的影响,内部因子对财政脆弱性的影响程度普遍高于外部因子。内部因素中,财政赤字相关指标对财政脆弱性的影响最显著。外部因素中,物价因素是影响财政脆弱性的最主要因子之一,金融市场因子对财政脆弱性亦有显著影响。本文最后给出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the catastrophe series method and entropy method are used to construct the evaluation index system of China's financial vulnerability, to study the financial vulnerability of our country, and to analyze the influencing factors of the vulnerability. The results show that the degree of financial vulnerability of China from 2002 to 2004, from 2008 to 2014 is higher than that of previous years. Although the value of the vulnerability index between 2010 and 2014 is at a higher level than in previous years, the overall trend of decline indicates that the financial vulnerability of our country is gradually improving in recent years; fiscal vulnerability is affected by both internal and external factors. The influence of internal factors on financial vulnerability is generally higher than that of external factors. Among the internal factors, fiscal deficit-related indicators have the most significant impact on fiscal vulnerability. Among the external factors, the price factor is one of the most important factors affecting the financial vulnerability, and the financial market factor also has a significant impact on the financial vulnerability. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are given.
【作者单位】： 中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目,项目编号为15ZDA009 国家自然科学基金项目的阶段性成果,项目编号为71473280
【分类号】：F812
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本文编号：2051415