公共预算决策及时性的动态均衡分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 09:09

本文选题：公共预算决策 + 预算延迟　；参考：《经济与管理研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：公共预算决策的及时性是政府善政和国家治理能力的重要体现。本文基于前景理论,构建了预算决策的"双群体"静态和动态前景博弈模型,以全面透析和模拟预算决策的真实世界。研究表明,预算决策及时与否与预算偏离度、决策者的支出偏好、损失厌恶程度以及延迟成本密切相关。为避免预算延迟,应制定有利于平滑收入波动的预算制度,重点加强极端财政状况时期的预算管理和控制;引导决策者形成一致的支出偏好,并适当延长决策层的任期;建立预算决策奖惩激励机制以及信息网络共享平台。
[Abstract]:The timeliness of public budget decision is the important embodiment of government good governance and national governance ability. Based on the prospect theory, this paper constructs a "two-group" static and dynamic foreground game model for budget decision making, in order to fully analyze and simulate the real world of budget decision. The research shows that budget decision timely or not is closely related to budget deviation, decision maker's expenditure preference, loss aversion and delay cost. In order to avoid budget delay, it is necessary to establish a budget system that is conducive to smoothing income fluctuations, focusing on strengthening budget management and control during periods of extreme financial situation, guiding decision makers to form consistent expenditure preferences, and appropriately extending the tenure of decision makers; Establish a budget decision incentive mechanism and information network sharing platform.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国预算绩效指标框架与指标库建设研究”(12&ZD198);国家社会科学基金项目“我国预算制度的演化与改进研究”(12BJY134) 中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心、南开大学亚洲研究中心研究课题“社会主义市场经济条件下的跨年度预算平衡机制研究”(AS1619)
【分类号】：F812.3

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