中国土地财政与经济增长关系研究——基于空间杜宾模型实证检验

发布时间：2018-07-05 13:24

本文选题：土地财政 + 财政分权　；参考：《宏观质量研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：文章基于中国2004-2013年289个地级市面板数据,从空间经济学视角探究土地财政对经济增长短期及长期影响,并引入脱钩指数以衡量二者之间数量关系。通过理论分析与实证检验发现:第一,2004-2013年289个地级市土地财政绝对值与相对值存在较大差异,即东部沿海地区土地财政绝对值与相对值远超西部地区,且中部地区土地财政增长幅度相对较高,此外,不管是东部还是中西部地区,土地财政与经济增长二者之间总体呈相对脱钩状态。第二,通过计算全局莫兰指数(MI)发现,不管是基于地理相邻权重、地理距离权重还是经济距离权重,2004-2013年289个地级市土地财政、经济增长全局MI值均大于0,即各地区土地财政、经济增长之间存在正的空间相关性。第三,基于静态空间杜宾模型实证检验发现,不管是基于地理相邻权重、地理距离权重还是经济距离权重,土地财政与经济增长之间存在库兹涅茨倒U型曲线,即土地财政短期有利于促进经济增长,但过度土地财政会抑制经济增长,此外,财政分权、城镇化、房价等因素均会对经济增长造成影响。鉴于此,为合理利用土地财政促进经济与社会可持续发展,本文提出应正确看待土地财政,改革土地、财税与官员晋升制度,并加强各地区之间交流合作。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 289 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2013, this paper explores the short- and long-term impacts of land finance on economic growth from the perspective of spatial economics, and introduces a decoupling index to measure the quantitative relationship between them. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, it is found that the absolute and relative values of land finance in 289 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2013 are quite different, that is, the absolute and relative values of land finance in the eastern coastal areas far exceed those in the western regions. In addition, there is a relative decoupling between land finance and economic growth in both eastern and western regions. Secondly, by calculating the global Moran index (MI), it is found that whether based on geographical adjacent weight, geographical distance weight or economic distance weight, the overall MI value of economic growth is greater than 0 in 289 prefectural cities from 2004 to 2013, that is, land finance in all regions. There is a positive spatial correlation between economic growth. Thirdly, based on the static spatial Doberman model, we find that there exists Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve between land finance and economic growth, whether based on geographical adjacent weight, geographical distance weight or economic distance weight. That is, land finance can promote economic growth in the short term, but excessive land finance will restrain economic growth. In addition, fiscal decentralization, urbanization, housing prices and other factors will affect economic growth. In view of this, in order to make rational use of land finance to promote the sustainable development of economy and society, this paper puts forward that we should treat land finance correctly, reform the system of land finance, finance and taxation, and promote the promotion of officials, and strengthen the exchange and cooperation among different regions.
【作者单位】：福州大学经济与管理学院;华中科技大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124.1;F301;F812.2

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