山东省地方政府债券信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 13:32

本文选题：地方政府债券 + 地方政府债务　；参考：《青岛大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2014年,国务院批准包括山东省、青岛市在内的十个省市自发自还地方政府债券。2015年,国务院安排地方政府发行3.2万亿的置换债券,缓解地方政府到期债券,为地方财政减负‖。按照《新预算法》,发行债券将成为我国地方政府融资的主要方式。因此,对地方政府债券信用风险以及合理发债规模进行深入研究具有重要意义。首先,本文对地方政府相关债务、债券理论进行梳理,借鉴美日市政债市场经验探讨我国地方债发展方向,并对债券信用风险模型进行归纳比较。其次,立足于我国地方债券发行现状,对比分析8个省级政府的发债情况。再次,本文利用修正的KMV模型对2016—2020年山东省及其17地市的地方债信用风险和安全发债规模进行实证分析研究。数据显示,尽管短期内不会发生违约,但当前山东省发债总量已经超出安全规模。2019年山东省将迎来第一个偿债高峰期,而随着经济增速的回落、置换债券的集中发行,地方债未来偿付压力增大,地方债信用风险应引起足够重视。建议从地方债规模、期限结构、地方财政制度和融资模式等方面进行优化改革。
[Abstract]:In 2014, the State Council approved the voluntary repayment of local government bonds by 10 provinces and cities, including Shandong and Qingdao. In 2015, the State Council arranged for local governments to issue 3.2 trillion replacement bonds to ease the maturing bonds of local governments. Reduce the burden of local finance. According to the New Budget Law, issuing bonds will become the main way for local governments to raise funds. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the credit risk and reasonable bond issuance scale of local government bonds. First of all, this paper combs the local government debt and bond theory, discusses the development direction of our country's local debt based on the experience of American and Japanese municipal bond market, and sums up and compares the bond credit risk model. Secondly, based on the current situation of local bond issuance in China, the paper compares and analyzes the bond issuance situation of 8 provincial governments. Thirdly, using the modified KMV model, this paper makes an empirical study on the credit risk and the scale of safe bond issuance in Shandong Province and its 17 cities from 2016 to 2020. The data show that although there will be no default in the near future, the total amount of bonds issued in Shandong Province is now above the safe scale. Shandong Province will usher in the first peak of debt service in 2019, and as economic growth slows, the issue of replacement bonds will be concentrated. The local bond will pay more attention in the future, and the credit risk of the local debt should be paid more attention. It is suggested to optimize the local debt scale, term structure, local financial system and financing model.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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