地方政府土地财政风险评估与防范研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 14:42

本文选题：地方政府 + 土地财政　；参考：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,得益于地方政府之间的竞争,我国经济发展保持了持续较快的增速。在此竞争制度下,地方政府纷纷利用手中的稀缺土地资源,选择有利于快速增加自身财政收入总量、增加固定资产投资的策略性行为选择——“土地财政”。分税制改革的开展,导致地方政府财权与事权不对称,进一步加深了地方财政收支对“卖地生财”路径的依赖程度。众所周知,人多地少是我国的基本国情。在18亿亩耕保红线硬约束下,作为土地财政模式的核心载体我国城镇建设用地早已捉襟见肘。也就是说,看似“简单方便、快速高效”的土地财政模式,实际隐藏了巨大的风险,不确定性明显。包括财政风险、金融风险、社会风险、政治腐败风险等等。在转变经济发展方式的大背景下,对土地财政风险开展定量评估和防范治理是十分紧迫和有必要的。本研究将风险关注点落脚在土地财政模式的财政风险上。按照“现状分析——风险评估——风险预测——风险防范”的逻辑分析框架,在对土地财政和土地财政风险的概念内涵分别进行阐释和界定的基础上,对土地财政现状规模及结构的时空演变规律进行了深入分析和揭示。同时,在理论层面上构建了风险定量评估指标体系,并开展了风险评估实证研究。在此基础上,进一步开展了风险预测研究,以揭示未来风险演变趋势。最后,基于转变经济发展方式,创新土地管理的需要,落脚在土地财政风险防范治理上。论文主要研究内容有：1.土地财政及其风险内涵探讨与规模现状分析在回顾前人研究成果的基础上,结合本研究的定位和需要,对土地财政内涵进行探讨分析。并借鉴财政风险的概念定义,从公共资源不确定的角度出发,对土地财政风险的概念和内涵进行深入探讨和界定。在此基础上,对土地财政现状规模进行测算,并对其规模及结构呈现出的时空演变特点及差异进行分析。2.地方政府土地财政风险定量评估研究结合土地财政风险内涵探讨和概念界定,基于土地财政模式中收入流量不确定性和公共资源不确定性两个维度从理论上构建风险评估指标体系以实现定量化分析和比较研究的目的。再利用全国层面和省级层面数据开展风险评估的实证研究,并对风险评价结果进行相应的分析扣等级划分。3.地方政府土地财政风险预测研究在前文风险定量评估研究的基础上,对我国地方政府土地财政风险进行预测研究,以揭示风险演变趋势,进一步阐明风险治理的紧迫性。同时开展情景模拟研究,揭示地方政府土地财政及其风险在不同情境下的变化情况,为下文的风险防范治理提供支持和依据。具体模拟情景包括：模拟GDP增速调整、模拟房地产市场调控。4.地方政府土地财政风险防范治理研究首先,对我国地方政府土地财政的驱动机制和实现机制进行研究,探索土地财政形成过程中的驱动力和实现机制。再次,开展国际比较研究,分析国外地方政府财税体制结构,对比我国当前地方政府财税结构,为风险防范提供国际经验借鉴和参考。最后在现状分析、风险评价、风险预测、驱动机制和实现能力分析、借鉴国际经验等的基础上,基于转变经济增长方式、创新土地管理的需要多角度有针对性地提出风险防范治理对策。研究结果表明：(1)在对土地财政规模现状的分析中得出,地方政府土地财政规模总体呈现出快速增长的态势,地方财政收入对土地财政的依赖程度存在一定的区域差异,东部高于中部,中部高于西部,且这种地区差异目前呈现不断缩小的态势,反映了地方政府在地方财政策略选择上对土地财政的偏好是一致的。土地财政结构由“土地出让金和土地税收并重”逐步向“以土地出让金为主”演变,且东中西部之间的区域差异也在不断缩小,说明了各地区地方政府对“卖地生财”路径的依赖和偏好是一致的。(2)土地财政风险定量评价的结果显示：全国层面上总体呈现出风险不断加深的态势,且东部地区风险高于中部,中部高于西部。区域层面上平均有45%以上的省份处于较高风险等级及以上。且风险相对较高的区域主要集中分布在建设用地资源禀赋较小但城镇建设用地过快扩张的地区,如东部沿海地区(江苏、浙江、福建等)、中部的部分地区(安徽、湖北等)、西部的少数地区(四川和重庆)。(3)风险预测结果表明：若不采取有效措施,那么在2011-2020年土地财政风险程度将继续不断加深。情景模拟的结果则表明：适当调低GDP增速预期目标和坚持强化落实房地产市场调控,有利于降低土地财政风险程度。(4)进一步结合土地财政驱动机制和实现机制的分析,借鉴国外地方财税体系结构,本研究提出了如下的风险防范治理对策：加强土地行政管理监督,控制建设用地供应节奏；变革土地财政形成机制,改善地方财政收入结构；完善土地市场结构,改革土地征收制度；完善预算监督机制,加强金融监管力度；深化分税制改革,实现地方财权与事权相匹配；完善行政绩效考核标准,改革标尺竞争体制。本论文的研究将土地财政风险的关注点落脚在财政风险上,而未对金融风险、社会风险、政治风险等进行定量评价,旨在抛砖引玉,对土地财政风险进行全面的定量评价仍有待深入研究。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, thanks to the competition between local governments, China's economic development has maintained a sustained and rapid growth rate. Under this competition system, local governments have used the scarce land resources in their hands to choose the strategic behavior choice, which is beneficial to increase the total amount of its own financial income and increase the investment in fixed assets, "land wealth". The development of the tax system reform leads to the asymmetry between the financial power and the power of the local government, and further deepens the dependence of the local financial revenue and expenditure on the way of "selling land for living". As we all know, people are the basic national conditions of our country. Under the hard constraint of the 1 billion 800 million mu ploughing red line, the construction of China's urban construction as the core carrier of the land finance model In other words, the land finance model, which looks like "simple and convenient, fast and efficient", has actually hidden huge risks, and the uncertainty is obvious. It includes financial risk, financial risk, social risk, political corruption risk and so on. In the background of changing the economic development formula, the quantitative assessment of the land financial risk is carried out. It is very urgent and necessary to prevent and control. This study puts the focus of risk on the financial risk of the land financial model. According to the logical analysis framework of "current situation analysis -- risk assessment - risk prediction - risk prevention", the concept of land finance and land financial risk is explained and bounded respectively. On the basis of the decision, the temporal and spatial evolution law of the current scale and structure of the land finance is deeply analyzed and revealed. At the same time, the quantitative risk assessment index system is built on the theoretical level, and the empirical research on the risk assessment is carried out. On this basis, the risk prediction research is further carried out to reveal the future trend of risk evolution. On the basis of changing the way of economic development and innovation of land management, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1. the connotation of land finance and its risk connotation and its scale status analysis are based on the review of previous research results, and the connotation of land finance is discussed in combination with the orientation and needs of this study. On the basis of the concept and definition of financial risk, the concept and connotation of land financial risk are deeply discussed and defined from the angle of uncertainty of public resources. On this basis, the current scale of land finance is calculated, and the characteristics and differences of time space evolution of its scale and structure are analyzed and the local government of.2. is analyzed. The research on quantitative assessment of land financial risk combined with the connotation of land financial risk and concept definition, based on two dimensions of uncertainty of income flow and uncertainty of public resources in the land finance model, the aim of quantitative analysis and comparative study is constructed in theory to realize quantitative analysis and comparative study. The empirical research on the risk assessment of the level data, and the corresponding analysis of the results of the risk assessment of the.3. local government land financial risk prediction research on the basis of the previous quantitative risk assessment research, the land financial risk of local government in China is predicted to reveal the trend of the risk evolution and further clarified. At the same time, the situation simulation study is carried out to reveal the changes of local government's land finance and its risk in different situations, and provide support and basis for the prevention and management of the risk. The specific simulation scenarios include the simulation of the GDP growth adjustment and the control of the land financial risk prevention of the local government in the.4. local government. First, research on the driving mechanism and Realization Mechanism of land finance of local government in China, explore the driving force and Realization Mechanism in the process of land finance. Thirdly, carry out international comparative study, analyze the structure of foreign local government financial and tax system, compare the current local government finance and tax structure in our country, and provide the country for risk prevention. In the end, on the basis of the current situation analysis, risk assessment, risk prediction, driving mechanism and implementation ability analysis, on the basis of international experience and so on, based on the transformation of economic growth mode, the needs of innovation land management are targeted to put forward the Countermeasures of risk prevention and control. The results show that (1) in the land financial regulations In the analysis of the status of the model, it is concluded that the local government land financial scale has shown a rapid growth trend, and the dependence of local fiscal revenue on land finance has certain regional differences, the East is higher than the central and the central part is higher than the west, and the regional differences present a trend of not breaking down at present, reflecting the local government in the local finance. The preference of land finance is consistent with the choice of political strategy. The land finance structure is gradually changed from land leasing and land tax to land leasing, and the regional differences between the East and the West are also narrowing, which shows the dependence and preference of local governments on the path of "selling land for money". (2) the results of the quantitative evaluation of land financial risk showed that the overall risk of the country showed a trend of deepening risk, and the risk in the East was higher than that in the middle and the central part was higher than that in the West. On the regional level, more than 45% of the provinces were in higher risk grade and above. And the regions with relatively high risk were mainly distributed in the region. Areas with less resource endowment but too rapid expansion of urban construction land, such as the eastern coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, etc.), part of the central region (Anhui, Hubei, etc.), and a few regions in the West (Sichuan and Chongqing). (3) the results of risk prediction show that if no effective measures are taken, the degree of land financial risk in the 2011-2020 year period It will continue to deepen. The results of the scenario simulation show that the proper reduction of the expected target of GDP growth and the strengthening of the real estate market regulation will help to reduce the degree of land financial risk. (4) further combining the analysis of the driving mechanism and the realization mechanism of the land finance, and drawing on the structure of the foreign and foreign financial and tax systems, this study puts forward the following The countermeasures are to strengthen the supervision of land administration, control the supply rhythm of the construction land, change the formation mechanism of land finance, improve the structure of local financial revenue, improve the structure of the land market, reform the system of land expropriation, improve the budget supervision mechanism, strengthen the financial supervision, deepen the reform of the tax sharing system and realize the local wealth. Right and power are matched, the administrative performance appraisal standard is perfected, and the scale competition system is reform. The research of this paper puts the focus of the land financial risk on the financial risk, but does not quantify the financial risk, the social risk, the political risk and so on. The aim is to give a comprehensive and quantitative evaluation of the land financial risk. It needs to be studied in depth.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301;F812

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