中国政府支出结构对居民消费的动态影响效应分析

发布时间：2018-08-10 19:52

【摘要】：基于转型时期中国政府主导型经济的现实,采用中国1981——2013年居民消费支出、政府消费支出、政府投资支出、政府保障支出、城乡收入差异、金融发展程度等数据,建立VAR模型,从理论和实证角度剖析了居民消费受到政府支出结构的影响幅度。实证检验发现,政府消费支出、政府保障支出对居民消费具有引致效应,政府投资支出在一定的时滞后对居民消费具有挤出效应。本文认为,政府财政政策虽然能在一定程度上调控居民消费,但居民消费不能依赖政府刺激,政府资本性质的支出应退出一般竞争性和经营性领域,仅发挥公共支出的乘数效应和正外部性,努力促进居民消费持续增长的内生机制的形成。
[Abstract]:Based on the reality of China's government-led economy in the period of transition, this paper uses the data of Chinese residents' consumption expenditure, government investment expenditure, government security expenditure, urban-rural income difference, and the degree of financial development from 1981 to 2013. In this paper, VAR model is established to analyze the influence of government expenditure structure on the consumption of residents from the theoretical and empirical point of view. The empirical test shows that government consumption expenditure, government security expenditure has the induced effect on the residents' consumption, and the government investment expenditure has the crowding out effect on the residents' consumption in a certain period of time. This paper holds that although the government fiscal policy can control the consumption of residents to a certain extent, the consumption of residents cannot depend on government stimulus, and the expenditure of government capital should withdraw from the general competitive and operational fields. Only exerting the multiplier effect and positive externality of public expenditure, we should try to promote the formation of endogenous mechanism for the sustained growth of resident consumption.
【作者单位】：西安理工大学经济与管理学院;西安工业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373204) 陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地资助项目(12JZ067)
【分类号】：F126.1;F812.45;F224

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