基于价值链的税源风险预警体系研究
发布时间：2018-09-10 17:03
【摘要】：税收作为国家财政收入的主要来源,是国家参与国民收入分配的形式。企业为了最大化税后利益,在纳税过程中总是存在着较大的逃税动机。随着税源变化的日趋复杂,企业避税手段呈多样化、专业化、隐蔽化的发展趋势,导致国内仍然存在大量税源不能转化为税收的情况。此外,随着税源的急剧扩张和税源信息化建设的发展,各种应用信息库中存储着大量的涉税信息,但目前的系统在发现数据间存在的关联性方面存在较大缺陷。因此如何将这些数据转化成具有决策支持价值的信息成为实现信息管税进程的关键。为了提升整体税源税基的管控效率,引入税源风险管理理念,建立严谨、有效的税源风险预警体系,及时发现税源风险点,变事后处理为事前预警控制,提升对税源风险的监管质量,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文通过对近几年引入风险管理领域的系统论、ERP理论和价值链理论进行比较并考虑到企业纳税申报材料的形成过程,得出价值链理论更便于发现税源风险管理过程中的风险点。依据价值链理论分析企业可能存在的涉税风险点,得出23个财务信息指标。由于税源风险日趋复杂及财务报表分析具有一定的局限性,本文加入反映企业内部因素和外部因素的非财务定性指标,完成含有25个指标的税源风险预警指标体系的构建。由于税源风险预警问题是一个是与否两种结果的二分类问题,且影响税源风险评估的相关指标复杂多样,不一定具有正态分布或连续性的特性,所以本文选择Logistic回归模型进行实证研究。文中选取2013年与2014年存在虚列资产、虚构利润或一般会计记录不当违规行为的公司作为问题样本,然后选取配对样本组成共计198个研究对象的两组样本。通过Logistic回归法建立了风险识别模型,用以预测企业存在税源风险的可能性。预警模型包含净资产收益率、应收账款周转率、资产负债率、现金流量负债比、管理费用率、财务费用率、成本费用利润率、每股营业利润、营业利润率、净利润是否为负值、经营现金净流量是否为负值、综合税率、审计意见等13个预警指标。该模型预测结果准确率为75.3%,证明了基于波特价值链理论提出的税源风险预警体系具有较好的应用价值。
[Abstract]:As the main source of national revenue, tax is the form of national income distribution. In order to maximize the after-tax benefits, there is always a large tax evasion motivation in the process of tax payment. With the increasing complexity of the changes of tax sources, the tax avoidance means of enterprises are diversified, specialized and covert, leading to the fact that a large number of tax sources cannot be converted into tax revenue in China. In addition, with the rapid expansion of tax sources and the development of tax source information construction, a large amount of tax-related information is stored in various application information databases. Therefore, how to transform these data into information with decision support value becomes the key to realize the process of information management and taxation. In order to improve the control efficiency of the overall tax source tax base, the concept of tax source risk management is introduced, a rigorous and effective tax source risk warning system is established, the tax source risk point is found in time, and the after-treatment is changed into pre-warning control. It is of great practical significance to improve the supervision quality of tax source risk. This paper compares the ERP theory and the value chain theory introduced in the field of risk management in recent years and takes into account the forming process of the enterprise tax declaration materials, and draws the conclusion that the value chain theory is more convenient to find the risk points in the process of tax source risk management. Based on the value chain theory, this paper analyzes the possible tax-related risk points of enterprises, and obtains 23 financial information indicators. Due to the increasing complexity of tax source risk and the limitation of financial statement analysis, this paper adds non-financial qualitative index to reflect the internal and external factors of enterprise, and completes the construction of tax source risk warning index system with 25 indexes. Because the early warning problem of tax source risk is a two-category problem with two results, and the related indexes affecting the risk assessment of tax source are complex and diverse, they do not necessarily have the characteristics of normal distribution or continuity. So this article chooses Logistic regression model to carry on the empirical research. Companies with fictitious assets, fictitious profits or improper accounting records in 2013 and 2014 were selected as problem samples, and then matched samples were selected to form two groups of 198 subjects. The risk identification model is established by Logistic regression method to predict the possibility of tax source risk. The early warning model includes return on net assets, turnover ratio of accounts receivable, ratio of assets to liabilities, ratio of cash flow to liability, ratio of administrative expenses, rate of financial expenses, profit margin of cost and expense, operating profit per share, operating profit margin, net profit rate, whether the net profit is negative or not. Whether the net operating cash flow is negative, comprehensive tax rate, audit opinion and other 13 early warning indicators. The prediction accuracy of the model is 75.3, which proves that the early-warning system of tax source risk based on Porter's value chain theory has good application value.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275;F810.42
，
本文编号：2235069
[Abstract]:As the main source of national revenue, tax is the form of national income distribution. In order to maximize the after-tax benefits, there is always a large tax evasion motivation in the process of tax payment. With the increasing complexity of the changes of tax sources, the tax avoidance means of enterprises are diversified, specialized and covert, leading to the fact that a large number of tax sources cannot be converted into tax revenue in China. In addition, with the rapid expansion of tax sources and the development of tax source information construction, a large amount of tax-related information is stored in various application information databases. Therefore, how to transform these data into information with decision support value becomes the key to realize the process of information management and taxation. In order to improve the control efficiency of the overall tax source tax base, the concept of tax source risk management is introduced, a rigorous and effective tax source risk warning system is established, the tax source risk point is found in time, and the after-treatment is changed into pre-warning control. It is of great practical significance to improve the supervision quality of tax source risk. This paper compares the ERP theory and the value chain theory introduced in the field of risk management in recent years and takes into account the forming process of the enterprise tax declaration materials, and draws the conclusion that the value chain theory is more convenient to find the risk points in the process of tax source risk management. Based on the value chain theory, this paper analyzes the possible tax-related risk points of enterprises, and obtains 23 financial information indicators. Due to the increasing complexity of tax source risk and the limitation of financial statement analysis, this paper adds non-financial qualitative index to reflect the internal and external factors of enterprise, and completes the construction of tax source risk warning index system with 25 indexes. Because the early warning problem of tax source risk is a two-category problem with two results, and the related indexes affecting the risk assessment of tax source are complex and diverse, they do not necessarily have the characteristics of normal distribution or continuity. So this article chooses Logistic regression model to carry on the empirical research. Companies with fictitious assets, fictitious profits or improper accounting records in 2013 and 2014 were selected as problem samples, and then matched samples were selected to form two groups of 198 subjects. The risk identification model is established by Logistic regression method to predict the possibility of tax source risk. The early warning model includes return on net assets, turnover ratio of accounts receivable, ratio of assets to liabilities, ratio of cash flow to liability, ratio of administrative expenses, rate of financial expenses, profit margin of cost and expense, operating profit per share, operating profit margin, net profit rate, whether the net profit is negative or not. Whether the net operating cash flow is negative, comprehensive tax rate, audit opinion and other 13 early warning indicators. The prediction accuracy of the model is 75.3, which proves that the early-warning system of tax source risk based on Porter's value chain theory has good application value.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275;F810.42
，
本文编号：2235069
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